[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD pressured as oil reverses, EUR looks to EZ inflation; JOLTS due

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude subdued following yesterday’s surge, awaiting concrete US-Iran updates

Rabobank maintains its forecast for a 25bps ECB rate hike next week; expects the ECB to raise rates by another 25bps, likely in September

[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD pressured as oil reverses, EUR looks to EZ inflation; JOLTS due

UK Labour leader candidate Andy Burnham says he rules out an early General Election if he is elected to replace PM Starmer, Bloomberg reports citing his spokesperson

Toyota (7203 JT) to suspend operations at 13 Japanese plants due to Typhoon risks, effective 3rd June, Nikkei reports

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  • G10s are mixed but mostly stronger against the Buck as energy benchmarks pull back alongside more constructive Gulf headlines. 
  • The Buck trades a touch lower after pressure seen in the early European morning attempted to push the Dollar index to the 99.00 level. Markets are generally more risk-on after headlines overnight were more constructive than those seen on Monday. See 08:20 BST headline for geopolitical specifics. US domestic newsflow has been light. Today sees the release of JOLTS job openings. The figure is expected to be broadly unchanged from the March figure. DXY trades 0.1% lower within a 99.05-9922 range.
  • EUR is a touch firmer against the weaker Buck in a reaction you would expect to see in response to the recent geopolitical headlines. EZ inflation due at 10:00 BST, which is expected to rise 0.2 ppts to 3.2%. The data shouldn't change much for the ECB into the June 11th meeting, where the Governing Council is overwhelmingly expected to tighten its policy rate. EUR/USD +0.2%, remains on 1.1600 handle.
  • JPY is the sole currency which does not post gains against the Buck, with the pair just flat/lower. Japan saw strong demand at its 10yr auction overnight, where demand rose beyond the 12-month average despite the BoJ slated to hike rates in two weeks. JPY saw modest strength on the results, though it proved fleeting with USD/JPY rangebound given the various fiscal/Terms of Trade headwinds. In a note this morning, ING wrote "The risk of new intervention does look a bit underpriced, considering Japanese authorities have remained rather hawkish with their intervention narrative." Katayama was on the wires overnight, she said: "Closely coordinating with the US on FX."

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