[MARKET UPDATE] Fixed income continues to climb after US PCE and the ECB, with further support coming on haven-allure amid the equity pressure, NQ -1.8%, GOOG -13%

Fixed income continues to climb after US PCE and the ECB, with further support coming on haven-allure amid the equity pressure, NQ -1.8%, GOOG -13%.

The conjunction of a data release and a central bank decision on the same session is a familiar catalyst for rates: when both land, the duration move tends to be larger and more durable than on single-catalyst days, and the follow-through question is which of the two is doing the work. Here the additional driver is the equity leg, and the pattern in such sessions is well established: sharp single-name-led declines in the high-multiple growth complex, rather than broad macro stress, typically produce a haven bid into core government paper through the asset-allocation channel, with bunds and Treasuries gaining as equity futures slide. The distinction worth drawing is whether the rally is growth-scare driven, which flattens, or event-risk driven around the equity selloff itself, which tends to lift the belly and front end and fades if equities stabilise. A double-digit decline in a mega-cap constituent of this size mechanically weighs on the Nasdaq complex, and the rates bid in those episodes has historically tracked the equity tape intraday rather than any fresh macro information. What bears watching is whether the bid persists into the close and across the following session, since haven moves rooted in one earnings reaction have tended to retrace once the idiosyncratic shock is digested, whereas moves anchored to the data and the central bank signal have held. The relative performance of bunds versus Treasuries will indicate how much of the move is the ECB rather than the equity spillover.