[MARKET UPDATE] Stocks and T-notes hit, crude and dollar bid on reports from Israeli Press that Iran Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf has resigned from the negotiating team following IRGC intervention

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[MARKET UPDATE] Stocks and T-notes hit, crude and dollar bid on reports from Israeli Press that Iran Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf has resigned from the negotiating team following IRGC intervention

Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Ghalibaf resigns from the negotiating team following the intervention of the IRGC, N12 news reports

US sells USD 26bln of 5-year TIPS; tail 0.2bps

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  • At the same time, i24 News reported that sources in Israel and America believe the IRGC is running Israel, not Khamenei.
  • The IRGC are seen as more hawkish/aggressive than the government.

Context

This update indicates heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Iran's internal power dynamics. The resignation of Ghalibaf from the negotiating team, coupled with the perception that the IRGC is exerting more control, suggests a shift towards a more hawkish stance, which could exacerbate market volatility. As a result, we see risk-off sentiment impacting equities and T-notes, while crude and the dollar gain traction amid concerns over potential escalations.

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