NBP's Duda says rates could rise in the near term if November forecasts show inflation remaining higher for longer, fuel prices and risk of a broader global commodity shock are main upside risks to inflation

Conditional tightening talk tied to an explicit forecast round is a familiar device from smaller inflation-targeting central banks: by anchoring the threat to a dated projection rather than to current data, the official keeps optionality while putting markets on notice ahead of the decision. The distinction worth drawing is between headline and underlying: where upside risks are framed around fuel and a broader commodity shock, policy has historically responded only if second-round effects show in wages and core measures, since central banks have usually looked through pure supply-driven price level shifts unless expectations begin to drift. A single MPC member's warning also needs placing within the council's spectrum, as it is the median rather than the hawkish tail that sets the path, and the NBP has in the past moved in both directions with limited notice. The follow-ons are the November projection itself, any similar language from the governor or other members, and whether core and services prints corroborate the higher-for-longer framing. For PLN, the channel runs through rate differentials at the front end, where hawkish council rhetoric has tended to support the currency unless it fades at the meeting itself.