Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News - 12th June 2026

• US stocks rallied as risk sentiment improved markedly on Thursday after US President Trump touted a deal with Iran and announced that planned US strikes scheduled for the night had been cancelled. The gains in stocks were led by cyclical and growth-sensitive sectors as investors rotated back into risk assets, with industrial materials and tech outperforming, although Oracle (ORCL) was the tech laggard after recent earnings, whereby its USD 40bln equity sale saw the stock fall over 8%, while energy was the sole sector to finish in the red after the crude complex was the primary casualty of the geopolitical optimism. Markets continue to await official confirmation regarding the reported agreement, with Iranian and Israeli media pushing back on some of the claims. However, Fars reported that any proposed deal is likely to be accepted, helping maintain optimism around a potential de-escalation. Meanwhile, Trump suggested the deal could be signed this weekend in Europe.
• USD was broadly hit on Trump reversing his decision to attack Iran tonight, citing that discussions with Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved. Trump floated an agreement that would be signed and announced soon, although an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Iran had not reached a final conclusion about the agreement. Nonetheless, oil prices tumbled, leaving bonds bid as Fed rate hike bets got unwound, denting the USD bull case. There were also recent data releases in which US PPI sparked a quiet reaction in trade, though it printed notably hotter on the headline readings than CPI on Wednesday, but Core came in softer-than-expected, while acceleration in the supercore measure means current levels of underlying inflation remain a concern. Separately, initial jobless claims ticked higher to 229K from 225K, but like continued claims, remained in healthy ranges.
• Looking ahead, highlights include New Zealand Business NZ PMI, Japanese Industrial Production Final Reading for April.

LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include New Zealand Business NZ PMI, Japanese Industrial Production Final Reading for April.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

IRAN CONFLICT

• US President Trump said we just made a great settlement of war with Iran and that a signing of the Iran deal will probably happen in Europe and soon, while he added that documents are pretty much in final shape and that a deal signing may occur over the weekend. Trump also said the Strait of Hormuz will open as soon as the deal is signed and that he won't be able to be there for the signing, but VP Vance will be there.
• US President Trump said he understands that Iran’s Supreme Leader has approved the deal and lifting the blockade is part of the Iran deal, while he added that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon and that they want to make a deal a lot more than he does. Trump added it's a very strong MOU, they found Iran to be rational, and they will make a deal. Furthermore, he said the Strait will open immediately upon MOU signing, maybe Saturday or Monday, but doesn't want to set a deadline for the deal, and stated a Kharg Island deal would be off the table now.
• US President Trump cancelled scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening, saying discussions with Iran had been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved. Trump stated that discussions and final points had been approved in both concept and great detail by all parties involved, including the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt and others, while the naval blockade would remain in full force until the transaction is finalised and that the time and place of the signing would be announced shortly.
• US President Trump told NYP that an agreement with Iran had been "pretty much all wrapped up".
• US President Trump has claimed an agreement was close multiple times before, while Tehran has yet to confirm his latest claim. However, sources told Axios that key gaps were resolved during talks between Iranian officials and Qatari mediators. According to three sources briefed on the talks, the Qataris and the Iranians believed on Wednesday that they had reached an agreed-upon text that the US would also accept. The sources said the gaps were narrowed on three key issues: the mechanism for releasing Iran's frozen assets, arrangements for reopening the Strait of Hormuz during the 60-day ceasefire period, and how negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme will be conducted during the 60-day ceasefire period.
• US President Trump’s post on social media suggesting an imminent agreement with Tehran surprised Israeli PM Netanyahu — who was in the midst of a security discussion about Iran, according to an Israeli source. Israel was not aware of any impending agreement with Iran, the source told CNN, or of any approval to an agreement, appearing to contradict Trump’s claim on Truth Social.
• US President Trump spoke to the Pakistanis, shortly before he called off strikes on Iran on Thursday, who have been mediating with the Iranians, while the Pakistanis told Trump that “we have a deal” with Iran, according to NYT citing a senior admin official.
• US-Iran MOU is likely to be signed next week, according to CBS.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the issues raised about the agreement are speculation and the issue has not been finalised, while it added that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is less secure due to US actions and that what is being said about the time and place of signing the agreement is media speculation. Furthermore, the spokesperson said that Iran has so far not reached a final conclusion about the agreement, but stated that the text of the agreement is almost ready.
• Sources cited by Al Hadath said Iran has given final approval, which Qatar conveyed to the US.
• Agreement reached to extend the truce for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to Al Arabiya citing sources familiar with details of the US/Iran agreement. Under the agreement, the US will ease sanctions on Iran and lift the embargo, while negotiations on highly enriched uranium will take place within 60 days. Iran gave final approval, which Qatar then conveyed to the US.
• Iran submitted a draft agreement with the US to Qatari mediators, according to the NYP.
• Iranian source told Al-Araby that good progress has been made in the negotiations over the past two days, thanks to Qatari efforts to overcome obstacles.
• Iran said "As long as we haven't announced that there is a memorandum of understanding - there is no agreement", according to i24 News Amichai Stein. It was also reported that Iran responded "He has already said 38 times that there is an agreement, his words should be treated like his previous lies", according to Israel Hayom Heb.
• Tasnim reported that as long as the issue of possible understandings is not officially announced by Iran, any report by Trump on this matter should be treated as his previous statements were treated. However, Fars News reported "it seems that given that the United States has accepted the text proposed by Iran, the likelihood of this text being approved by the main authorities of the system is high".
• Iranian Journalist Ghaderi said, "The point here is that the agreement will only be signed by top Iranian officials if, first, the entire text is accepted and, second, the preconditions, including the definitive transfer of money, are met."
• Iranian Foreign Minister may travel to Pakistan next Saturday, according to Al Arabiya sources.
• Qatar's Emir spoke with US President Trump and reviewed the results of the consultations and understandings reached between the US and Iran, which led to progress in the understandings presented within the framework of the negotiation process.
• US President Trump earlier said they would be hitting Iran "VERY HARD TONIGHT" and that, in the not-too-distant future, the US would be taking Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure points and assume total control of Iran's oil and gas markets.
• US President Trump earlier said regarding Iran that they were talking to them and that his preference would be to take Kharg Island, according to Fox News, although he was not sure the US had the appetite for it. He added that they were negotiating with Iran to make a deal, and he would like to reach a deal with Iran now, while he would rather not hit bridges and power plants, but said the Iran bombing tonight would be more powerful, and reiterated that he did not want boots on the ground.
• US CENTCOM said the Strait of Hormuz remains open for transit and Iran does not control it, while Iran's PGSA said the Strait of Hormuz will be closed until further notice.
• US attacks are currently focused on ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. US military has attacked and will attack extensive military targets to prevent the Iranians from being able to threaten ships passing through the strait, according to i24.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry said the US attack had rendered the ceasefire "practically meaningless".
• Iran Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said, "Wrong strategies and impulsive decisions will reset the entire board for the worse, explode energy infrastructure and markets and create an endless quagmire that you will be stuck in for years." He added, "You will see a different Iran."
• Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Mokhber said the war with the US will continue unless the US shows respect for Iranian interests, according to CNN.
• Iran's Supreme Leader adviser Rezaei said the US must choose between accepting Iran's terms and losing the last strand of its credibility in the world.
• Iran's Chairman of the Parliament's National Security Commission said Iran will give a decisive, crushing, painful and regretful response to any action or threat, according to Nour News.
• Iran's Commander of the Central Headquarters of the Holy Prophet warned that if America tries to carry out attacks against heroic Iran again, it will receive a more severe response than before.
• Iran's Deputy for Communications and Information of the President's Office said, "Threatening Iran means setting the Middle East ablaze and imposing damage on the global economy".
• Iranian National Security official said, in response to Trump's earlier comments, the US will receive a stronger and more painful response.
• Iran has been preparing for months for a US operation to take control of Kharg Island, which US President Trump threatened to attack on Thursday, according to CNN.
• Iranian negotiators worked with Qatari intermediaries until late on Wednesday to finalise a draft document, according to CNN, while the leadership were reviewing the text. A source acknowledged real “breakthroughs” in US-Iran peace negotiations amid a post on social media from US President Donald Trump that an agreement with Tehran is imminent, according to CNN. The source told CNN that mediators are “cautiously optimistic” about the parties getting a deal over the finish line.
• A delegation from Qatar returned from Tehran to Doha this morning following talks with Iranian officials conducted in coordination with the United States, according to NBC citing sources. The source added that talks lasted into the early hours of this morning.
• A high-ranking source told Al Arabiya that the Qatari delegation returning from Tehran delivered Iran's approval of the final draft.
• UAE and Iran reportedly met face-to-face to ease tensions, according to Bloomberg. The report said the UAE’s leaders want to keep their economic ambitions, including investing billions of dollars in increased oil production and AI data centres, on track. Sources added that Abu Dhabi’s latest contact with Iran was mainly motivated by the UAE seeking a détente with a regime it considers an enemy but realises will not be dislodged from power.
• Pakistan’s Foreign Minister said they remain engaged with a degree of optimism and understand how diplomacy has shrunk because of the hostilities, but continue to work with positivity. He added that channels of communication remain open and that Pakistan and Qatar remain engaged in mediation efforts.

US TRADE

• US stocks rallied as risk sentiment improved markedly on Thursday after US President Trump touted a deal with Iran and announced that planned US strikes scheduled for the night had been cancelled. The gains in stocks were led by cyclical and growth-sensitive sectors as investors rotated back into risk assets, with industrial materials and tech outperforming, although Oracle (ORCL) was the tech laggared after recent earnings, whereby its USD 40bln equity sale saw the stock fall over 8%, while energy was the sole sector to finish in the red after the crude complex was the primary casualty of the geopolitical optimism. Markets continue to await official confirmation regarding the reported agreement, with Iranian and Israeli media pushing back on some of the claims. However, Fars reported that any proposed deal is likely to be accepted, helping maintain optimism around a potential de-escalation. Meanwhile, Trump suggested the deal could be signed this weekend in Europe.
• SPX +1.75% at 7,394, NDX +3.29% at 29,446, DJI +1.86% at 50,854, RUT +3.02% at 2,921.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• Canadian Trade Minister Leblanc said he was not surprised that US President Trump will not renew the USMCA on July 1, while adding that they will maintain bilateral arrangements with the US and Mexico outside of the USMCA framework.
• Mexican President Sheinbaum said the USMCA will be maintained after Trump said he was not looking to renew it.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• NY Fed plans to conduct approximately USD 16.5bln in reinvestment purchases and an additional approximately USD 10bln in reserve management purchases over the noted monthly period.
• US Pentagon was locked down and partially evacuated due to a hazardous materials false alarm, according to CNN.
• US CDC activated a Level 3 emergency response to tackle a screwworm outbreak. It was separately reported that screwworm treatment for pets received emergency US FDA approval, according to the Washington Post.

DATA RECAP

• US PPI (May) M/M +1.1% vs. Exp. +0.7% (Prev. +1.4%)
• US PPI (May) Y/Y +6.5% vs. Exp. +6.4% (Prev. +6.0%)
• US Continuing Jobless Claims (May 30) 1.795M vs. Exp. 1.780M (Prev. 1.777M)
• US Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 6) 229K vs. Exp. 219K (Prev. 225K)

FX/GLOBAL

• USD was broadly hit on Trump reversing his decision to attack Iran tonight, citing that discussions with Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved. Trump floated an agreement that would be signed and announced soon, although an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Iran had not reached a final conclusion about the agreement. Nonetheless, oil prices tumbled, leaving bonds bid as Fed rate hike bets got unwound, denting the USD bull case. There were also recent data releases in which US PPI sparked a quiet reaction in trade, though it printed notably hotter on the headline readings than CPI on Wednesday, but Core came in softer-than-expected, while acceleration in the supercore measure means current levels of underlying inflation remain a concern. Separately, initial jobless claims ticked higher to 229K from 225K, but like continued claims, remained in healthy ranges.
• EUR strengthened as the dollar was sold following Trump's announcements, while the ECB decision was broadly as expected, with a 25bps hike and the expected non-committal guidance and usual language, although price action in the single currency was mostly influenced by the geopolitical climate.
• GBP bounced off intraday lows and reclaimed the 1.3400 status, while attention turns to incoming data, with UK monthly GDP and output data scheduled on Friday.
• JPY traded mixed against it peers, although USD/JPY retreated back beneath the 160.00 territory as the dollar, yields and oil prices were pressured following the improved geopolitical climate.
• CBRT held its key rate at 37.0%, as expected. CBRT said the underlying trend of inflation, which increased in April due in part to higher energy prices following its rise in the first months of the year, decreased slightly in May. It added that amid geopolitical developments and resulting uncertainties, energy prices remain volatile and elevated.
• World Bank cut its 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 2.6%, lowered its China forecast to 4.2% from 4.4%, and kept its US growth forecast at 2.2%.

FIXED INCOME

• T-notes settled higher and yields declined across the curve as Trump touted a US/Iran deal.

COMMODITIES

• Oil prices reversed early gains and tumbled on Thursday as US President Trump touted an agreed-upon deal with Iran, while he also cancelled the planned strikes on Iran, which he only announced this morning.
• OPEC's May MOMR forecast global oil demand growth of 1.0mln bpd Y/Y in 2026, down from 1.2mln bpd in the previous assessment, and 1.7 million bpd Y/Y in 2027, up from 1.5mln bpd.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Japanese PM Takaichi and US President Trump are arranging a meeting during the G7, according to Nikkei. Energy supply stability is expected to be discussed, while the leaders agreed to coordinate the meeting during a call after the May US-China summit. The summit will take place in Evian from June 15, 2026.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• ECB raised rates by 25bps, lifting the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, the main refinancing operations rate to 2.40% and the marginal lending facility rate to 2.65%. ECB said it is not pre-committing to a particular rate path and will follow a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach.
• ECB President Lagarde reiterated that the outlook remains uncertain, with upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth, while she also reiterated the ECB's meeting-by-meeting approach and said the ECB stands ready to adjust all instruments. Lagarde said domestic demand is now seen as weaker than in March and that risks to the growth outlook are to the downside, although growth could turn out higher if the economy adapts more quickly or the war is resolved promptly, while she added that risks to the inflation outlook are to the upside.
• ECB President Lagarde said in the Q&A that the decision to raise rates was unanimous and alternatives were not discussed, while the decision was not an "insurance" move and that the 25bps hike was a signal and necessary given the economic situation, inflation outlook and uncertainty. Lagarde avoided a question on whether today's hike is the beginning of a rate hike cycle, and she noted that the main risk today would be not taking this sort of decision and that the correct decision was to raise rates, commit and deliver on price stability. Furthermore, she noted the statement said that with today's hike, the ECB is well prepared to navigate the uncertainty ahead, while reiterating a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach with no predetermined rate path.
• ECB policymakers are eyeing a July pause if energy prices stay where they are, while the ECB would need to see a material surge in crude prices to back a July hike. Policymakers' projections embed two more rate hikes, meaning a September increase remains possible, according to Reuters citing sources.
• ECB officials see the next rate hike as soon as July, according to Bloomberg citing sources.