Newsquawk Daily Economic Release - 25th September 2026

Durable goods orders is the tier-one US item and has historically driven front-end repricing only when the core capital goods component deviates materially from trend, since it feeds directly into business investment estimates; the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker arrives after and tends to confirm rather than surprise, as it is largely mechanical. A cluster of Fed speakers on a data day has, in past sessions of this kind, mattered most when commentary leans against the morning's print, so the sequencing of Williams, Hammack and Schmid relative to the release is the tell. In Europe, German GfK is a second-tier sentiment gauge that rarely moves Bunds on its own, while ratings actions on the EU and Italy from Moody's and Scope warrant attention mainly for outlook language on Italy, where BTP spread sensitivity to agency commentary has been episodic rather than systematic. The China holiday thins Asia liquidity, a condition that has historically amplified overnight moves in USD and commodity FX on even modest headlines.