Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 15th October 2026

• The US military developed new strike plans that include potentially using the so-called “mother of all bombs” to target Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites.
• APAC stocks slumped amid the global tech sell-off; European tech slumps, whilst NQ -1% underperforms.
• KOSPI was the worst performer and triggered circuit breakers after dropping as much as 8% owing to its large tech exposure.
• DXY pressured on lower yields & AI concerns; AUD underperforms post-jobs data.
• Crude pressured by global risk-off sentiment and potential supply relief; gold gains on haven demand.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobless Claims (Oct/10), PPI (Sep), Retail Sales (Sep), Philly Fed Index (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3). Speakers include Fed’s Bowman & Hammack, BoC’s Rogers, Earnings from Charles Schwab & Alcoa.

As of 10:30BST / 05:30 EDT

LOOKING AHEAD

• Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobless Claims (Oct/10), PPI (Sep), Retail Sales (Sep), Philly Fed Index (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3). Speakers include Fed’s Bowman & Hammack, BoC’s Rogers, Earnings from Charles Schwab & Alcoa.
• Click here for the Week Ahead preview

EQUITIES

• European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) point to a mixed picture, with so-called defensives (FTSE 100 +0.3%, SMI +0.4%) outperforming while cyclical-heavy indices (DAX 40 -0.3%, AEX -0.9%) underperform, primarily driven by the continued selloff in chip and memory names.
• Sectors have a slight positive tilt. Telecoms lead, with Food, Beverages & Tobacco and Insurance rounding out the sector gainers. Unsurprisingly, Tech is the sector laggard, with Basic Resources and Industrials following behind.
• US equity futures are mixed, with the NQ and ES being weighed on by tech names. AI funding has returned as a worry for investors, with the Broadcom CEO recently highlighting concerns about AI buildout financing. Additionally, CoreWeave has been pressured, with shares plunging 15% in the prior session (-6% pre-market) as it has been heavily reliant on the high-yield debt markets to finance its build out.
• TSMC EARNINGS: TSMC earnings failed to result in a rebound in the tech space, despite a better-than-expected revenue outlook. In brief, Q3 net income topped estimates while gross margin printed a tick lower than consensus. The chipmaker projected Q4 sales as much as USD 54.3bln (exp. USD 48.8bln), which should result in a c. +44% rise in 2026 revenue in USD. Following the Q3 release, analysts at Saxo Markets see this as a much-needed vote of confidence in the AI demand story, amid a selloff triggered by growing signs of stress.
• US FTC has subpoenaed Anthropic and OpenAI, Axios reports citing sources; seeking documentation in relation to safety incidents and privacy policies. Plan to compel executives to testify.

FX

• Snapshot: G10s are mostly firmer against the USD, which is under mild pressure this morning. The Aussie is the clear underperformer following a weak jobs report, whilst the CHF holds at the top of the pile, on narrowing yield differentials and the broader risk-off tone.
• DXY is currently trading with modest losses, giving back some of the strength seen in the prior session; as it stands the index holds within a 101.87 to 102.39 range. Pressure which appears to be a pull back from the prior day’s post-CPI gains, and as US yields falter, amidst the latest tech sell off. Overnight, the likes of SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics sank in excess of 11%, with investors worried about AI spending sustainability, and most recently, default concerns related to CoreWeave.
• The selling pressure also comes in the aftermath of a hot US CPI report, which only further exacerbates credit concerns and expectations of tighter conditions ahead. Money markets currently assign a 27% chance of a hike in October, and 90% by December 2026; a few sell-side banks have also brought forward their calls of a hike by year-end vs previously viewing a hold.
• Aussie (-0.6%) is the clear underperformer this morning, and currently holds at the lower end of a 0.6936 to 0.6980 range. This comes after a very poor regional jobs report, which showed an unexpected contraction in headline Employment Change, which was solely due to part-time work, while the Unemployment Rate rose, although it coincided with a fall in the Participation Rate. A report which saw money market pare back their bets of a hike in November (16%); c. 40% chance of a hike is assigned by year-end.
• CHF (+0.6%) is the outperformer this morning, joined closely by the EUR (+0.5%) and GBP (+0.5%), all benefiting from the broader USD pressure. The Swiss Franc cheers narrowing yield differentials, whilst the GBP counts down the days to the UK Budget (Oct 28th).
• On that note, recent source reports about Chancellor Healey’s plans have been taken in the market’s stride. Most pertinently, he 1) does not intend to equalise income tax and CGT, 2) will fund the package without fresh borrowing. Into the Budget, the August GDP M/M reading saw the UK grow 0.1%, topping expectations of -0.1%, but beneath the prior 0.4%. So whilst Healey will welcome the growth in August, the slight slowdown will no doubt lessen some of the breathing room he would have liked to have. Cable kneejerked higher on the series itself, but then pared back given it has little impact on monetary policy in the near-term. On this subject, a couple of BoE members have spoken today; Greene reiterated that she sees risks of second round effects as “pretty significant”, whilst Breeden questioned whether the energy shock is gone or just delayed. A stark contrast between the two MPC members. GBP/USD currently holds within a 1.3186 to 1.3259 range.
• South Korea and Japan extend their currency swap agreement, Yonhap reported.

FIXED INCOME

• In short, the post-CPI rebound continues as the tech/AI selloff extends and a FTQ ensues.
• USTs at a 105-18 peak, firmer by 22 ticks on the day already into PPI, retail sales and Fed speak. Taking USTs to the highest since the 23rd of September, when 106-08+ printed. Amidst this, yields are lower across the curve with the 10yr down by 10bps on the day, at a 5.08% low; if the move continues, it is worth reminding that the referenced 23rd September session was the last time a sub-5% US 10yr yield was seen. For context, we are some way off the 5.365% early-October peak.
• Bunds in-fitting with drivers much the same, and ECB speak and data prints having no real impact on the market thus far. Price action that has lifted Bunds to a 121.92 peak, firmer by 96 ticks at best; though, for what it is worth, the peak hit in APAC trade (in slight contrast to USTs) during the worst of the South Korea selloff.
• Gilts opened higher by just over 50 ticks before extending to gains of exactly a full point on the day, hitting 84.91 and the highest since October 2nd. A move driven by the above FTQ. No real followthrough to the UK’s GDP data, as while better than expected this was essentially due to favourable service revisions in the last two periods, and a stagnate service picture in August, as opposed to any surprise growth. While the better-than-expected print is welcome, it does not change the narrative for policymakers.
• Spain sells EUR 5.436bln vs Exp. 4.5-5.5bln 2.35% 2029, 2.60% 2031 and 3.55% 2033 Bono.
• France sells EUR 12bln vs Exp. EUR 10-12bln 2.70% 2031, 0.00% 2031, 3.25% 2032 and 3.50% 2033 OAT

COMMODITIES

• WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures are softer amid the broader risk-off tone following the global tech sell-off and hotter-than-expected US CPI yesterday, with the complex also pressured by potential supply relief. Recent reports suggested the US is considering easing sanctions on shadow fleet vessels to boost oil flows, while Russian diesel could reach the US ahead of the November midterms. Nonetheless, geopolitics has subsided, with the US reportedly preparing fresh strike options against Iranian energy and nuclear facilities, while Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continue. Elsewhere, US private inventories yesterday showed a sizeable 11.1mln bbl draw in crude (exp. 1.9mln bbl build), although this provided little support amid the broader selling.
• WTI resides in a USD 93.58-95.31/bbl range, while Brent declined within a USD 103.64-105.83/bbl range, albeit both off worst levels. Dutch TTF is softer alongside the broader pullback in energy prices, although underlying fundamentals remain bullish ahead of winter. TTF fell to the bottom of a EUR 85.00-87.80/MWh range at the time of writing.
• Precious metals are firmer, with spot gold benefiting from haven demand amid the global tech sell-off, alongside a softer DXY and lower global yields despite yesterday's hotter-than-expected US CPI. Spot gold is firmer within a USD 4,100-4,162/oz range, while spot silver also gains, within a USD 55.49-56.37/oz range.
• Base metals are softer amid the broader risk-off tone, with copper pressured by the sharp sell-off in global equities, particularly Asian tech stocks, with the KOSPI suffering the most, alongside concerns over further Fed tightening following the US CPI report. 3M LME copper trades close to the bottom of a USD 14,320-14,480/t range.
• Chinese State Planner said that domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices will not be adjusted on Oct 15, 2026.
• Chile's state miner CODELCO called a shareholders meeting for November 5th to review production inconsistencies in 2024 and 2025.
• US Weekly Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -11.1mln (exp. +1.9mln), Gasoline +1.1mln (exp. -0.8mln), Distillate -1.5mln (exp. -2.0mln), Cushing +1.8mln.
• Russian Deputy PM Novak says that "a number of countries, not just the US, are interested in purchasing Russian diesel fuel"

TRADE/TARIFFS

• Japanese Trade Minister Akazawa said Japan and US agree on first chip project under USDD 550bln investment plan, while he added that chip project has great significance in AI era and they remain strongly committed to last year's trade deal. said:. Latest chip project is to enhance Japan and US ties further. Collaborating on chip supply is key for economic security.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• UK Chancellor Healey said he will follow IMF advice to stick to deficit reduction plans in October 28th Budget.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

• UK GDP (Aug MM) 0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.4%).
• UK GDP (Aug YY) 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 1.8%).
• UK GDP 3-Month Avg (Aug) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%).
• UK Trade Balance (Aug) -0.920B (Prev. -3.450B).
• UK Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (Aug) -5.29B (Prev. -8.19B).
• UK Goods Trade Balance (Aug) -18.01B vs. Exp. -21.8B (Prev. -19.30B).
• UK Manufacturing Production (Aug YY) 3.0% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 2.2%).
• UK Manufacturing Production (Aug MM) 1.2% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 1.0%).
• UK Construction Output (Aug YY) -1.8% vs. Exp. -1.6% (Prev. -1.9%).
• UK Industrial Production (Aug YY) 1.6% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.8%).
• UK Industrial Production (Aug MM) 0.8% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.3%).
• French CPI Final (Sep YY) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3% (Prev. 2.4%).
• French CPI Final (Sep MM) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 0.7%).
• French HICP Final (Sep YY) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 2.6%).
• French HICP Final (Sep MM) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. 0.4%).
• European Industrial Production (Aug YY) -1.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.3%); Industrial Production (Aug MM) -0.5% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. -0.3%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN EQUITY HEADLINES

• UBS (UBSG SW) is mapping out contingency plans to move its HQ from Switzerland if Swiss lawmakers proceed with tougher capital requirements under the country’s too-big-to-fail banking laws, according to WSJ.

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed's Daly (2027 voter) said we are more likely than not to need more rate hikes, but still deliberating on timing, adds not in a posture of urgency and better to be thoughtful and deliberate. Reassuring that after markets' initial 'robust' reaction to CPI data, markets are calmer. Markets understand the Fed's reaction. CPI showed gas prices are driving headline inflation, while core inflation remains sticky, as expected. Feels imprudent to react when there is time to make a good decision. Don't know yet if inflation will come down as shocks abate or worsen if shocks persist. Risks to above-target inflation remain elevated; stable labour market means the Fed can focus on price stability. The Fed has a responsibility to communicate effectively and be accountable, transparent and clear.
• US President Trump said the Fed has interest rates artificially high.
• UBS expects the Fed to hike for a third time in March 2027 (prev. saw hiking cycle to end in December).
• BoJ Board Member Koeda said she believes that the bank should adjust the policy interest rate in a timely manner with an eye on the economic and price situation, while keeping in mind the estimated range of the neutral interest rate. The monetary environment has been accommodative; no pace of hikes in mind, sees neutral rate "significantly" above 1%.
• ECB's Kazaks said that there is no immediate rush on interest rates, inflationary pressure remains strong in the near term.
• ECB's Pereira said yields rise is more related to fiscal issues, adds good news is that inflation is not spreading and if inflation starts broadening, central banks will be forced to act. said:. Growth is surprising on the upside and wouldn't be surprised if it continued in the next few months.
• ECB's Dolenc said don't see second-round effects yet and the labour market isn't so tight anymore, adds must be vigilant on inflation data. said:. Approaching a restrictive policy stance. ECB may not have to do much if markets tighten and have tools including TPI which will be used if needed.
• BoE's Breeden said are looking to whether the energy shock is gone or just delayed; the loosening of the labour market hopefully means that there will not be wage price pressure like in 2022.
• BoE's Greene said the risks of second-round effects are quite significant.
• BoE's chief economist Pill said should not give impression that hike now would be at the start of a series of increases.
• RBNZ Chief Economist Conway said New Zealand is feeling the effects of oil price shock, while he affirm's direction of the OCR is most likely up and the next OCR decision is wide open.
• PBoC Governor Pan attends China-GCC Central Bank Governors' Meeting, while the PBoC and Qatar Central Bank renew FX swap agreement.
• PBoC injected CNY 45bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.40%.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7253 vs exp. 6.6977 (prev. 6.7249).
• SARB Governor sees upside risks to inflation to remain, adding that he expects CPI to return to the 3% target only in 2028; policy rates are moderately restrictive and consistent with the outlook.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President Trump said regarding the inflation report that we're doing well.
• White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair said referring to the inflation report that this is not a good month and that Bureau of Labor Statistics data is reliable.
• US President Trump posted "I’m heading to Montana for a “PACKED HOUSE” Speech. It’s broadcast LIVE on Right Side Broadcasting Network (RSBN) — What a great job they do. See you soon!".
• Trump administration's investigation into Rep. Omar is aimed at building a case to strip her of her US citizenship and ultimately deport her, according to US officials and other people familiar with the probe cited by WSJ.
• US Judge limited Justice Department's access to Rep. Ilhan Omar's records in sprawling immigration fraud probe, according to CNN's Jake Tapper.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said no change in the US-Japan message since intervention.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky's top advisors spoke with White House counterparts on Wednesday and asked whether there'd be a decision to shut down Starlink services and what could be done to fix the situation, according to sources cited by Axios's Ravid. "A senior U.S. official said the Trump administration had nothing to do with the alleged Starlink service constraints. But Ukrainian officials remain suspicious".
• US proposed European countries unfreeze some Russian sovereign assets in an effort to revive peace talks during discussions in Miami last week between Trump's peace negotiators and officials from Ukraine, France, Germany, UK, EU and NATO, according to FT. European delegates rebuffed the plan.
• Ukraine President Zelensky said Ukraine will resume strikes on Russian refineries and expresses anger at a dangerous withdrawal of US intelligence sharing and weakening of Starlink satellite internet service, according to FT.
• Dutch PM said that "we need to step up our game and make sure Ukraine wins the war".
• Russia's Ryazan refinery was reportedly attacked overnight by drone.
• Russia hits Ukraine's Izmail port and cargo vessels.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said there is no such fact when asked whether Japan is conducting espionage in Russia.
• UK Chancellor Healey called on other nations to stay the path regarding Russia sanctions and said tighter ban on Russia-linked shipping services is needed.

MIDDLE EAST

US-IRAN

• US is considering using "mother of all bombs" against Iran, according to source cited by CNN.
• US President Trump reiterated that the war with Iran will end soon and fuel prices will drop shortly, adds Iran issue will be resolved quickly.
• US President Trump said we have complete control of the Strait of Hormuz and are extracting more oil from it than ever before, while he stated that Iran was two weeks away from acquiring a nuclear weapon before we struck their sites. This matter in Iran will end very soon, and when it ends, gasoline prices will drop to levels even lower than they were before the start of military operations.
• US is reportedly discussing lifting some sanctions on shadow fleet vessels in attempt to lower global freight rates and boost oil flows in the Middle East, according to an official.
• IRGC Spokesperson said attack on violating ships was a response to America's third breach of promise.

HOUTHIS-SAUDI

• Saudi-led coalition says that a cruise missile has been intercepted in the Medina region, Al Hadath reports; Yemeni Army Spokesperson says Forces did not target Saudi's Medina, and these claims is a great falsehood.
• Houthis are developing their own advanced ballistic missiles that could reach Saudi Arabia and Israel using Chinese delivered parts, according to New York Post.
• Houthi media official called on Taiz residents to stay inside their homes.
• Yemen's air defences downed a Saudi Typhoon warplane in the skies over Saada in Yemen, according to Fars.
• Arab sources report hearing several explosions in Yemen's capital, according to Tasnim.
• Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed a drone in the kingdom's eastern region.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin (-3%) and Ethereum (-5%) slip alongside the broader risk tone.

• APAC stocks were lower across the board as the sell-off rolled over into the region following the losses stateside owing to the tech rout and hot CPI data.
• ASX 200 was slightly lower but with the downside limited as underperformance in tech and miners was offset by resilience in financials, telecoms and defensive sectors, while disappointing jobs data further lessened the likelihood of the central bank hiking rates again next month.
• Nikkei 225 slumped by more than 3000 points, with double-digit losses seen in several tech stocks.
• KOSPI was the worst performer and triggered circuit breakers after dropping as much as 8% owing to its large tech exposure and the ongoing bloodbath in the sector.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad-based tech-driven weakness, with recent stronger-than-expected lending data doing little to spur risk sentiment.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Chinese Premier Li said regarding New Yalu River Bridge, which connects China and North Korea, said opening of the bridge will strongly promote economic and trade cooperation and further strengthen personnel exchanges.

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP

• Japanese Capacity Utilization (Aug MM) -4.2% (Prev. 0.5%).
• Japanese Industrial Production Final (Aug YY) 2.7% (Prev. 3.9%).
• Japanese Industrial Production Final (Aug MM) -2.4% vs. Exp. -1.7% (Prev. -0.2%).
• Japanese Machinery Orders (Aug MM) 5.2% vs. Exp. 3% (Prev. -3.7%).
• Japanese Machinery Orders (Aug YY) 18.6% vs. Exp. 15.7% (Prev. 11.2%).
• Australian Part Time Employment Chg (Sep) -73.7K (Prev. 45.8K).
• Australian Full Time Employment Change (Sep) 34.4K (Prev. -6.3K).
• Australian Employment Change (Sep) -39.3K vs. Exp. 20K (Prev. 39.5K).
• Australian Unemployment Rate (Sep) 4.7% vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 4.6%).
• Australian Participation Rate (Sep) 66.8% vs. Exp. 67% (Prev. 67.1%).