Norges Bank Q1 Regional Network Survey: Expect minor changes in output growth in the period to summer
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Norges Bank Q1 Regional Network Survey: Expect minor changes in output growth in the period to summer
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- Growth prospects have improved on the back of defence investment, energy supply development and higher expected household demand.
- However, the completion of projects initiated in response to the petroleum tax package and low activity in building construction are dampening growth.
- Contacts expect annual wage growth of 4.2% in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027.
Indicators
- GDP Q1'26 0.3% (prev. 0.3%)
- GDP Q2'26 0.4%
- Employment growth Q1'26 0.1% (prev. 0.1%)
- Employment growth Q2'26 0.2%
- Annual wage growth 2026 4.2% (prev. 4.1%)
- Annual wage growth 2027 3.9%
Context
The Norges Bank's Q1 Regional Network Survey reflects a mixed outlook on growth, with minor changes anticipated in output leading into summer. While prospects have improved due to increased defense investment and household demand, challenges remain from slowed construction activity and project completions stemming from past tax measures. This scenario suggests a cautious approach for the central bank regarding policy rates, given the moderate GDP and employment growth projections.
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