OPEC MOMR (Nov): 2026 and 2027 demand and supply forecast unchanged from the prior report

• 2026: Global oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.2mln bpd in 2026, Y/Y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
• 2027: Global oil demand in 2027 is forecast to grow by about 2.6mln bpd, Y/Y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.

• 2026: Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids production growth are expected to be Brazil, the US, Canada, and Argentina.
• 2027: In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, also unchanged from last month’s assessment. This growth will mainly be driven by Qatar, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina.

• 2026: The demand for DoC crude in 2026 (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) remains unchanged from last month’s assessment at 42.1mln bpd, 0.6mln bpd lower, Y/Y.
• 2027: The demand for DoC crude in 2027 also remains unchanged from last month’s assessment at 43.9mln bpd, which is about 1.8mln bpd higher, Y/Y.

• Saudi tells OPEC that output surged 26% to a new war-time high.

An unchanged MOMR is the routine case: OPEC's monthly assessments typically move forecasts in small steps, and the desk-relevant content is usually not the headline balance but the gap between the secretariat's demand assumptions and those of the other major forecasting bodies, which in recent years has been persistently wide, with OPEC sitting at the optimistic end. The call-on-DoC-crude line is the operative number for the group's production policy: it frames how much headroom exists for unwinding voluntary cuts without tipping the balance into surplus, and shifts in it have historically preceded quota debates more than they have followed price moves. The Saudi line stands out and warrants caution: month-to-month jumps of that reported magnitude in the direct-communication data have on past occasions reflected reporting or classification quirks rather than physical reality, and the secondary-source estimates in the same report are the conventional cross-check. The sequence to watch is the usual one: the other agencies' monthly reports for confirmation or divergence, then any ministerial signalling ahead of the next JMMC gathering, since compliance and compensation-cut language tend to matter more for the curve than an unrevised balance.