[PREVIEW] Norges Bank Policy Decision on 5th November 2026

• Norges Bank is expected to hold its key policy rate at 4.50% and reiterate its guidance.
• Inflation dynamics have been mixed, with headline inflation coming in slightly cooler than expected, while core inflation remains elevated.

OVERVIEW: Norges Bank is expected to hold its policy rate at 4.50%, following a 25bps hike in September, its second increase this year. Developments since the last meeting have been mixed, with headline inflation readings coming in cooler, while core inflation has remained above the Bank’s projections. Elsewhere, the NOK has steadily appreciated in recent weeks, which bodes well for the domestic inflation outlook. Given these opposing developments, the Bank is likely to verbally reiterate its rate path, as this is not an MPR meeting. As such, its tightening bias and "high for longer" guidance are expected to remain intact. Looking ahead, policymakers will likely require sustained evidence that inflation is moving back towards the 2% target. Nordea believes the Bank will not deliver a rate cut before 2028. Meanwhile, analysts at SEB expect the Bank to reiterate that the policy rate has peaked.

DATA: In September, CPI-ATE came in at 3% (exp. 3.1%), unchanged from the previous month, while headline CPI Y/Y rose slightly from the prior month but less than expected. Overall, the figures suggest that prices remain elevated, although inflationary pressures appear to be stabilising. On the activity front, GDP rose 2% Y/Y in Q2, although indicators such as Manufacturing Production have shown signs of a slowdown. Elsewhere, the Unemployment Rate in September jumped to 5% (prev. 4.5%).

LAST MEETING: At the last meeting, Governor Bache said it would likely be necessary to keep rates elevated for some time and that the Committee was prepared to raise rates further if warranted by the inflation outlook. The rate path showed the policy rate remaining close to current levels for a period before declining somewhat, with inflation not expected to return to 2% until 2029. Nordea said the path implied a 40% chance of another hike over the next six months, with no cuts forecast before 2028.