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PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak includes: Chair Warsh, Barr, Goolsbee, Cook, Bowman

Newsquawk Staff ·

  • 15:00BST/10:00EDT: Fed Chair Warsh (voter) will deliver his first semi-annual testimony as Fed Chair to the House. Based on recent history, Warsh’ text is likely to be released at 08:30EDT/13:30BST, and he is scheduled to begin his testimony at 10:00EDT/15:00BST. The Fed has now kept rates between 3.50-3.75% for four straight meetings, and Warshʼs term begins amid a backdrop of sticky inflation, potential tariff pass-throughs, and energy supply shocks, which have stoked fears of further policy tightening. The Fedʼs June meeting minutes released this week showed that some officials support resuming hikes ahead; while traders will look to Warshʼs remarks for any explicit thresholds that could trigger a rate rise, Warsh has notoriously leaned against any forms of forward guidance. Speaking last week, Warsh reiterated the Fed will not provide it, describing it as an obstacle to healthy FOMC debate; he added that rates should be the primary monetary policy tool, and expressed hope that new tech can improve economic understanding within a period of 9-12 months. Warsh also said that the Fedʼs dot plot projections will continue, at least in the near term. On the balance sheet, Warsh reiterated his preference for a smaller size, though declined to specify any target size; he said any change would be well deliberated and communicated. Warsh will also be quizzed on the newly established external task forces reviewing policy areas. The Fed has announced five task forces to review and improve its monetary policy conduct; each will be co-led by external figures from business and economics, including former BCBʼs Arminio Fraga, former BoE chief Mervyn King, former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, former Fed Governor Jeremy Stein, and former BIS advisor William White. Ahead of Warsh’s testimony, Fed rate hike expectations for July rose sharply, with market-implied odds climbing to approximately 50%. The pricing shift followed remarks Fed Governor Waller, who on Monday said that a near-term hike should be considered if June CPI shows another hot core reading.
  • 17:40BST/12:40EDT: Fed’s Barr (voter) will give remarks on AI at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference. Given the subject matter, it is likely that Barr will avoid comments on monetary policy and the economic outlook. Speaking in Early June, Barr said policy was in a good place, and likely to stay there for some time.
  • 18:00BST/13:00EDT: Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter) will participate in a fireside chat. Speaking towards the end of June, Goolsbee said core inflation remains well above target and is trending the wrong way, with services inflation particularly concerning as it is less likely to be transitory than goods or oil-related price rises. He described the labour market as stable for over a year but muted due to elevated uncertainty. On the balance sheet, Goolsbee said it was used as monetary policy in emergencies but is not typically thought of that way, and said he has long been uneasy with forward guidance while not opposing the dot plot outright.
  • 18:30BST/13:30EDT: Fed’s Cook (voter) will moderate a discussion at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference, titled ‘Consumers, Artificial Intelligence, and Financial Inclusion: Balancing Opportunities and Challenges’. Given the subject matter, it is likely that Cook will avoid comments on monetary policy and the economic outlook. Speaking towards the end of May, Cook said the right course of action is to hold rates steady, with risks tilted toward higher inflation that is “clearly moving in the wrong direction.” She said she would be prepared to raise rates if expected disinflation fails to appear in a timely manner, but would cut if the labour market deteriorates. Cook noted even temporary shocks could push up inflation in the medium term, while AI-related job losses could precede job gains; she described the labour market as “largely stable” but with elevated downside risks. Cook said she is closely watching inflation expectations and oil prices, warning it would be problematic if oil moved in the wrong direction.
  • 19:55BST/14:55EDT: Fed’s Bowman (voter) will give remarks on ‘Responsible Innovation and Financial Inclusion’ at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference. Given the subject matter, it is likely that Bowman will avoid comments on monetary policy and the economic outlook. While Bowman has spoken recently, she has not commented on monpol since May, when said progress on lowering inflation has stalled, and she would consider a shift in the policy outlook if war-driven inflation broadens. Bowman said that the longer the Middle East war continues, the greater the inflation risks, and that an extended energy shock would pressure inflation later in the year. She added the Fed can look through a temporary energy shock if it remains credible on monetary policy, and was optimistic that an end to the war would bring lower energy prices.

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