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PRIMER - US June CPI data is due at 13:30BST/08:30EDT

Newsquawk Staff ·

  • US June CPI is expected to see the headline at -0.1% M/M (prev. 0.5%), and the annual rate falling to 3.8% Y/Y (prev. 4.2%); the core rate of CPI is seen rising 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.2%), and the annual core rate is seen unchanged at 2.9% Y/Y (prev. 2.9%).
  • The May inflation data was driven by higher energy prices, though core inflation remained contained, with analysts citing little evidence of secondary price effects feeding through to the broader basket. For June, however, the sharp decline in oil prices following the US-Iran MOU is expected to weigh on the headline, while analysts will continue to look for any signs of pass-through into other components.
  • Analysts will use the CPI and PPI (due Weds) releases to model expectations for the June PCE data (due 30th July); in its June economic projections, the FOMC raised its view for headline PCE this year, forecasting 3.6% Y/Y (up from its prior view of 2.7%), though is expected to cool to 2.3% next year, before returning to target in 2028. Its core PCE view was revised up to 3.3% Y/Y for 2026 (from 2.7%), and is seen cooling to 2.5% next year, and 2.1% in 2028. The Cleveland Fedʼs inflation nowcasting models are tracking Juneʼs headline PCE at 3.88%, and the core measure at 3.43%.
  • Fed Governor Waller warned that another firm core inflation reading this week would see him consider a near-term rate hike. He said if it was hot he would take it as a signal, not noise, adding that he would need to see several months of softer core inflation before becoming confident that price pressures were moving back towards target.

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