Qatari mediators present Iran with a new draft deal in Tehran on Sunday, with Iran considering the proposal and a response expected by the end of the week, Reuters reports; Several countries would act as guarantors of the deal

• Draft deal sets a seven-day timeline to address both sides’ concerns, requiring daily confidence-building steps from each side, with the timeline potentially beginning early next week.

Mediated draft proposals of this kind, delivered by a third-party broker with guarantor states attached, follow a familiar pattern in Gulf and nuclear-file diplomacy: the channel itself is often the message, since Qatar has a long track record as an acceptable intermediary where direct talks are politically untenable. The staged structure matters more than the text, because short timelines built on daily reciprocal steps are designed to fail visibly if they fail at all, which historically concentrates the repricing into a narrow window around the deadline rather than diffusing it. The relevant market channel runs through crude: a credible de-escalation path compresses the geopolitical risk premium embedded in the front of the oil curve and in freight and insurance costs on Gulf transit, while any framework that touches sanctions enforcement bears on the informal export volumes already in the market. The composition of the guarantor group is the tell for whether the deal has enforcement weight or is aspirational, since guarantors with leverage over both parties have historically mattered more than the number of signatories. The follow-ons are the response within the stated window, any leaks on verification and sequencing, and whether the other party's official rhetoric shifts before the formal reply, which in past episodes of this kind has been the more reliable signal than the documents themselves.