Israeli PM Netanyahu's bloc has 56 seats and opposition has 49 seats after 50.1% of votes were counted, according to Israel's Channel 12

Israeli PM Netanyahu's bloc has 56 seats and opposition has 49 seats after 50.1% of votes were counted, according to Israel's Channel 12.

Exit-poll and partial-count projections of this kind have a well-established pattern in Israeli elections: bloc arithmetic at the halfway count tends to shift materially as remaining ballots, particularly military and overseas votes, are tallied, so the numbers at this stage are directional rather than settled. With neither bloc near the 61-seat threshold, the precedent is an extended coalition negotiation, and past episodes have shown that the final governing outcome often diverges from the early count in both composition and leadership. The near-term transmission channel to markets is thin: the shekel and local assets respond to political continuity or instability rather than to seat projections, and the broader USD, energy and gold tags on this wire reflect correlation rather than a direct causal link at this stage. What has historically mattered for regional risk premia is whether the resulting government signals continuity or change on security posture toward Iran and Gaza, and that question is not answered by a partial count. The tells are whether the bloc lead holds as the count completes, which parties emerge as kingmakers, and whether incumbent coalition negotiations begin quickly or drag, since protracted deadlock in past cycles has led to repeat elections.