Turkish CPI (Sep YY) 29.73% vs. Exp. 30.3% (Prev. 31.51%)

A softer-than-expected Turkish CPI print extends the disinflation sequence from the mid-2020s peak, and the pattern in past episodes of this kind has been that the central bank reads sub-consensus prints as validation for continuing measured rate cuts rather than accelerating them, since credibility rebuilding after years of unorthodox policy has historically made officials cautious about over-easing into sticky services inflation. The channel distinction that matters is between headline disinflation driven by base effects and energy, which the market tends to fade, and moderation in services and core momentum, which has been the central bank's stated condition for sustaining the easing path. The lira's behaviour in comparable stretches has been carry-driven: gradual managed depreciation with high real yields attracting foreign positioning into local bonds, so the operative question is whether the print keeps the real-rate cushion intact rather than whether it moves spot directionally. Worth watching is the core and services detail beneath the headline, the monthly annualised run-rate rather than the year-on-year figure, and whether officials signal comfort with the pace of cuts at the next meeting. A shortfall versus consensus at this stage of the cycle has historically been bond-supportive at the front end first, with the currency response second-order.