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US sells 4-wk bills at high-rate 3.910%, B/C 3.10x; sells 8-wk bills at high-rate 4.020%, B/C 2.63x

Newsquawk Staff ·

US sells 4-wk bills at high-rate 3.910%, B/C 3.10x; sells 8-wk bills at high-rate 4.020%, B/C 2.63x.

What it means

Weekly 4-week and 8-week auctions are the routine funding leg of Treasury's cash management, and the pattern that matters at this tenor is less any single coverage ratio than the relationship between the two stop rates: a gap of this order between the 4-week and the 8-week is what a normally upward-sloping bill curve around upcoming supply and reserve dates looks like, and a flattening or inversion of that spread has historically been the tell for quarter-end pressure, debt-ceiling distortions, or a repricing of near-term rate expectations. Bid-to-cover in the low-to-mid 3s on the 4-week sits within the range these sales have tended to clear at when dealer backstops are comfortable; the shorter maturity consistently draws the deepest demand because of its fit with money fund portfolio rules. The 8-week remains the newer and thinner of the two tenors, so its tail and indirect share are the more informative read on whether non-dealer sponsorship is holding up. What is worth watching across successive weekly sales is the tail versus the when-issued and the indirect bidder share, since persistent tailing at the very front of the curve has preceded broader concessions in coupons more often than the reverse. On the numbers given, this reads as an unremarkable clearing.

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