US Treasury Secretary Bessent says US is open to iscussing shared risks with China in upcoming AI talks this weekend, reports Axios

The rare earths element is the channel with the most direct market precedent, since Chinese export controls on critical minerals have in past episodes been used as leverage and their easing or tightening has moved defence, semiconductor and magnet supply chains more than any currency pair. On FX, prior rounds of bilateral talks have tended to soften risk premia in the China-sensitive complex (AUD, CNH, and by extension the dollar bloc) on the optics alone, with reversals when communiques underdelivered. The AI dimension is newer and has no real precedent; discussions framed around shared risk resemble early-stage arms-control style dialogue, where the initial value is establishing contact rather than substance. Worth noting is the distinction between headline optics and deliverables: markets have historically faded talk-driven rallies when follow-up statements lack specifics on tariffs or export licences. The tell is whether the meetings produce a named framework, a schedule for further rounds, or only affirmations of continued dialogue.