US WASDE Report (endstocks, bushels): Soybean 310mln (exp. 299mln), Wheat 717mln (exp. 717mln), Corn 1.567bln (exp. 1.522bln), Cotton 3.6mln (exp. 3.9mln)

US WASDE Report (endstocks, bushels): Soybean 310mln (exp. 299mln), Wheat 717mln (exp. 717mln), Corn 1.567bln (exp. 1.522bln), Cotton 3.6mln (exp. 3.9mln)

The monthly WASDE is the reference point for US balance sheets, and the ending stocks lines are where the surprise concentrates, since they roll up the report's supply and demand revisions into a single carryout figure. The mix here is the story: soybeans and corn printed above expectations, implying heavier carryout than the trade had pencilled in, wheat came in exactly on consensus, and cotton printed below, implying a tighter balance than expected. The established pattern on report day is for the grains with the bearish surprise to do the moving while the in-line contract follows passively, with the miss sized in bushels rather than percentages mattering most for the front months. Cotton's below-consensus stocks print cuts the other way, and historically the softs have traded their own balance sheet rather than the grains' on the day. The follow-ons are the session's reaction in spreads, old crop versus new crop, and whether the revisions to the demand side, exports and crush, corroborate the stocks surprise or are a rounding residual; the next monthly report and the acreage and stocks updates on the calendar are where such revisions tend to be confirmed or walked back.