Auction History: US to sell USD 28bln of 2-year FRNs at 16:30BST/18:00EDT

The tells that matter here are the high discount margin against when-issued trading and the indirect share, the latter being the usual proxy for real-money and foreign official appetite for front-end paper, which has historically dominated this auction's takedown. Dealer awards at the lower end of recent averages would signal end-user sponsorship rather than street warehousing; a heavy dealer fill, by contrast, has tended to precede cheapening in the margin in secondary trading. The bill supply calendar and reserve balances are the relevant backdrop, since FRN demand competes directly with bills and RRP balances for the same cash. A tail or stop-through at the margin is the cleanest read on money market demand for Treasury floaters, and any follow-through tends to show in bill and FRN spreads rather than in note futures.