[PREVIEW] Norges Bank Policy Announcement on 24th September 2026

• Current expectations are mixed on whether Norges Bank will hike its Key Policy Rate by 25bps to 4.50%, or keep rates steady. SEB says it is a “50/50” call.
• Headline inflation continues to remain elevated, whilst CPI-ATE is cooling and holds beneath the Bank’s target. Other activity metrics are mixed, with growth showing signs of softening.
• Guidance will vary depending on the decision, though either way it is likely to reiterate a tightening bias.

OVERVIEW: There are mixed views on whether Norges Bank will lift rates by 25bps or hold rates in September. The August inflation report was mixed, with headline inflation rising more than expected, while the closely watched CPI-ATE Y/Y rose from the prior reading but remained below the Bank's own forecast. On growth, the latest Regional Network Report highlighted some softness in the Norwegian economy, though perhaps not enough to alarm policymakers leaning towards a hike. Danske Bank writes that the decision will be a "close call" but favours a hold, while SEB believes the Bank will view inflation as too high and lean towards a hike, but sees it as a "50/50 call". The press conference will occur at 09:30 BST.

DATA: Headline CPI printed at -0.3% M/M (prev. 1%), while the Y/Y rate edged higher to 3.3% (exp. 3.2%, prev. 3%), slightly above the Bank's own forecast. Perhaps more importantly, the closely watched CPI-ATE metric showed progress, with the M/M reading cooling significantly to -0.5% (prev. 1%). The Y/Y figure printed at 3% (prev. 2.7%), importantly 0.3% below the Bank's own forecast. Elsewhere, activity metrics have been more mixed, with GDP showing initial signs of weakness, corroborated by the latest Regional Network Report - though perhaps not as weak as some had expected. The labour market remains fairly resilient, and wage expectations are broadly in-line with the Bank’s forecast.

HIKE OR HOLD: The decision will be a close one, given the finely balanced economic picture, a view highlighted by most sell-side analysts. Danske Bank opines that the Bank will hold rates, suggesting Norges Bank currently believes rates are already restrictive and that falling inflation rates are evidence of this. Therefore, it is "not necessary" to raise rates. On the flip side, Nordea, SEB and ING believe Norges Bank will deliver a 25bps hike. Those favouring a hike believe that while inflation is cooling, it remains too high and requires further tightening; some also highlight that global central bank peers have shifted hawkishly. Nonetheless, the decision remains uncertain, with SEB calling it a "50/50" call.

MPR / GUIDANCE: Attention will be on any guidance beyond September, though this of course be somewhat dictated by the September decision. Should policymakers decide to tighten, the Bank will likely keep the door open for future action. However, a hold would almost certainly require strong hints towards a hike later in the year. Attention will also be on any adjustments to the current MPR, which indicates a peak rate of 4.55%. SEB believes that if a hike is delivered, the rate path will likely indicate "lower or unchanged" rates at the front end, while indicating a higher rate over the longer term.

LAST MEETING: Norges Bank left rates unchanged at 4.25%, as expected. Commentary accompanying the announcement stated that "slower inflation is welcome news, but inflation is still too high". All-in-all, it was an uneventful meeting, with the focus now on upcoming data ahead of the September meeting. SEB's view is unchanged, calling for a final rate hike to 4.50% in September.