[PREVIEW] Riksbank Policy Announcement on 24th September 2026

• Riksbank will likely hold rates at 1.75% in September, according to analysts at ING, SEB and Nordea.
• Inflation is cooling, but still remains elevated; growth is also strong, but is showing early signs of slowing. A weak labour market may keep policymakers away from hiking.
• The interest rate path will likely be reflected to indicate a c. 60-70% chance of a hike later in the year.

OVERVIEW: Riksbank will likely keep rates on hold at 1.75% at its September meeting. The decision is supported by the latest inflation report, which was cooler than expected and showed that the upward trend seen throughout the summer months appears to be slowing. Despite inflation moving in the right direction, CPIF Y/Y remains above the Riksbank's own forecast, which will keep policymakers cautious about the inflation outlook. As such, SEB believes the Riksbank will signal a 60% chance of a hike at one of the next three meetings. Further out, SEB believes rates will remain on hold for the remainder of the year, while Nordea sees a November hike. Factors that would favour hikes this year include a resurgence in inflation, persistent pressure on the SEK and further rate hikes by global peers such as the ECB.

DATA: Inflation in August cooled more than expected, signalling that the recent upward trend in inflation is slowing. In brief, headline CPIF Y/Y printed at 0.7% (exp. 0.8%), but pertinently remained a touch above the Riksbank's own forecast of 0.6%; the core Y/Y figure also cooled a touch from the prior reading to 0.5%, below the Riksbank's view of 0.7%. At the headline level, Y/Y inflation cooled to the Riksbank's projection of 0.3%, while the M/M reading fell below its forecast at -0.1%. On the growth front, the Swedish economy was strong through Q2, but there are initial signs of weakness at the start of Q3. Swedish GDP printed at -0.8% in July (exp. -0.1%), while the total business sector remained unchanged at 0.0% (prev. 0.3%). Elsewhere, the labour market remains weak, with the latest unemployment report rising to 8.9% in August - a factor that will likely keep policymakers away from tightening in September.

MPR / GUIDANCE: Analysts broadly expect the rate path to be hawkishly revised, though views on the magnitude of the adjustment are mixed. SEB believes the Riksbank will signal a 60% chance of a hike at one of the next three policy meetings; nonetheless, the firm believes rates will remain on hold for the remainder of the year, should inflation continue to show signs of cooling. ING believes the next rate hike will be delivered in November and that the MPR will imply a full rate hike by year-end. It believes the Riksbank will deliver a hike in November; by H2'27, analysts see the interest rate projection being revised higher to 2.2-2.4% from the current 1.93%. Nordea shares the view that rates will be lifted in November and believes the rate path will indicate a 70% chance of a hike by November.

Current MPR: Q3’26 1.76% (exp. 1.75%), Q4’26 1.82% (exp. 1.85%), Q1’27 1.89% (exp. 2%.04), Q2’27 1.93% (exp. 2.17%), Q2’28 2.07% (exp. 2.32%), Q2’29 2.2% (exp. 2.42%) Expectations from Nordea

LAST MEETING: The Riksbank maintained its policy rate at 1.75%, as expected, while the accompanying commentary largely reiterated the prior meeting, when policymakers assessed that the possibility of a rate increase later this year remained. Following the meeting, SEB and Nordea both reiterated their calls for rates to remain steady for the remainder of the year, but highlighted the elevated uncertainty.