Bank of America (BAC) Co-President Demare says continued strength in macroeconomic backdrop; Q3 will not be as robust in markets as Q2 was
Newsquawk Staff ·
Bank of America (BAC) Co-President Demare says continued strength in macroeconomic backdrop; Q3 will not be as robust in markets as Q2 was.
What it means
Mid-quarter commentary from senior bank management on trading conditions is a well-established genre: it functions as an informal pre-announcement, and the market tends to treat it as a read-across for the whole US bank peer set rather than a name-specific signal, since markets revenue drivers such as volatility, issuance and client activity are largely shared. The split worth drawing is between the two halves of the remark: the constructive macro framing speaks to credit quality, net interest income and investment banking pipelines, while the caution on markets revenue speaks specifically to the trading line, which is the most volatile component of large-bank earnings and the one most sensitive to base effects. Sequential deceleration from an unusually strong quarter is a common pattern when a prior period carried elevated volatility-driven activity, and management at the money-centre banks has a track record of managing expectations in exactly this way ahead of the print. The follow-ons of note are comparable commentary from peers at industry conferences, which typically clusters in the same weeks, and any updates to consensus markets-revenue estimates that follow. The signal is qualitative rather than quantitative, and its weight depends on how much of the quarter was already complete when the remark was made.
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