[ANALYSIS] US Midterms: Senate, Governor and PUC indicative timings
Newsquawk Staff ·
US Senate
Senate control
| Market | Democrats | Republicans |
|---|---|---|
| Senate control – Kalshi | 76% | 26% |
| Senate control – Polymarket | 76% | 24% |
| Balance of power (Polymarket) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Democratic sweep (Senate + House) | 76% |
| R Senate / D House | 18% |
| Republican sweep | 6% |
| D Senate / R House | 1% |
- Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats (to 51). Since 29 Oct, Democrats' Senate odds are up from 68% to 76% on Polymarket.
Senate control – sector read
| Outcome (Polymarket odds) | Positive | Negative |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic sweep (76%) | Managed care & hospitals (UNH, ELV, CNC, MOH, HCA); staples & discount retail (WMT, DG, DLTR, KR); renewables (FSLR, NEE) | AI/data centres (NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, ORCL, DLR, EQIX); financials (JPM, BAC, GS, MS); defence (LMT, NOC, GD, RTX); crypto (COIN, HOOD, MSTR); USD and yields lower |
| R Senate / D House (18%) | Tech/AI (NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, AVGO); data-centre REITs (DLR, EQIX); USD | Crypto (COIN, HOOD, MSTR); shutdown and debt-ceiling risk |
| Republican sweep (6%) | Defence (LMT, NOC, GD, RTX, PLTR); oil & gas (XOM, CVX, COP, OXY); financials (JPM, BAC, GS, MS); crypto; AI/data centres (NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, ORCL, DLR, EQIX); nuclear & gas power (CEG, VST, GEV) | Hospitals & Medicaid plans (HCA, UHS, CNC, MOH); renewables (FSLR, NEE); long-end Treasuries |
Exit polls & first calls
| GMT | EST | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| 22:00 Tue | 17:00 | Embargo lifts on the first national voter intention polls |
| 22:45 Tue | 17:45 | ABC expected to post its first Voter Poll data |
| 23:00 Tue | 18:00 | First polls close (Kentucky, Indiana) |
| 00:00 | 19:00 | GA, SC, VT, VA close; some early calls possible at this stage |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | National Voter Poll results released |
- Reminder, it can take several days for overall control to be called.
State by state
| Polls close GMT | Polls close EST | State | Odds now, % (Kalshi / Polymarket) | 2024 pace GMT (first / 50% / 90%) | 2024 pace EST (first / 50% / 90%) | What to watch | Sector / equity read-across |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:00 Tue / 00:00 | 18:00 / 19:00 | Kentucky | Barr (R) 97 / 97 · Booker (D) 3 / 3 | 23:05 Tue / 01:15 / 02:30 | 18:05 / 20:15 / 21:30 | Very fast. Automatic recount if margin ≤0.5%. | – |
| 00:00 | 19:00 | Georgia | Ossoff (D) 97 / 97 · Collins (R) 3 / 3 | 00:04 / – / 03:21 (99% 08:15) | 19:04 / – / 22:21 (99% 03:15 Wed) | Secretary of State expects results before 05:00 GMT / 00:00 EST. Dec 1 runoff if no one tops 50%. | D hold priced. GA data-centre risk sits with the governor/PSC, not this seat. |
| 00:00 | 19:00 | South Carolina | Graham (R) 68 / 70 · Andrews (D) 32 / 32 | 00:19 / 01:50 / 04:14 | 19:19 / 20:50 / 23:14 | Automatic recount if margin ≤1%. | D upset: −AI/data centres, −financials, −crypto. R hold: priced. |
| 00:00 | 19:00 | Virginia | Warner (D) 99 / 99 · Mizusawa (R) 1 / 1 | 00:10 / – / >99% 06:52 (2025 race) | 19:10 / – / >99% 01:52 Wed | Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted until noon Fri 6 Nov. | – |
| 00:00 / 01:00 | 19:00 / 20:00 | Florida (special) | Moody (R) 84 / 86 · Nixon (D) 16 / 15 | 00:00 / 00:16 / 99% 03:51 | 19:00 / 19:16 / 99% 22:51 | Fastest count in the country. Machine recount at 0.5%, hand recount at 0.25%. | D upset: Medicare-for-All signal → −managed care (UNH, ELV, HUM, CNC, MOH). |
| 00:00 – 01:00 | 19:00 – 20:00 | New Hampshire | Pappas (D) 93 / 94 · Sununu (R) 7 / 6 | – / 03:12 / 06:42 | – / 22:12 / 01:42 Wed | Towns close at 19:00, 19:30 or 20:00 EST. AP won't call before 01:00 GMT / 20:00 EST (its 2022 practice). | D hold priced. R upset: +tech, +USD. |
| 00:30 | 19:30 | North Carolina | Cooper (D) 97 / 98 · Whatley (R) 3 / 2 | 00:35 / 02:17 / 04:36 | 19:35 / 21:17 / 23:36 | Most mail votes in first update. No grace period for late mail. | D flip priced. R upset: R Senate more likely → +tech, +USD. |
| 00:30 | 19:30 | Ohio (special) | Brown (D) 72 / 72 · Husted (R) 29 / 29 | 00:36 / 02:01 / 04:03 | 19:36 / 21:01 / 23:03 | Mail ballots must arrive by poll close (new law). Automatic recount at ≤0.25%. | D win: D Senate more likely → −AI/data centres, −financials, −crypto; −OH data-centre names (AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META, NVDA). R hold: +tech, +USD. |
| 00:30 | 19:30 | West Virginia | Capito (R) 99 / 99 · Fetty Anderson (D) 1 / 1 | 00:41 / 01:53 / 04:00 | 19:41 / 20:53 / 23:00 | Fast. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Alabama | Moore (R) 98 / 98 · Wess (D) 2 / 2 | 01:10 / 03:32 / 04:38 | 20:10 / 22:32 / 23:38 | Automatic recount if margin ≤0.5%. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Delaware | Coons (D) 99 / 99 · Katz (R) 1 / 1 | 01:29 / 01:59 / 02:57 | 20:29 / 20:59 / 21:57 | Fast. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Illinois | Stratton (D) 99 / 99 · Tracy (R) 1 / 1 | 01:14 / 02:30 / 05:45 | 20:14 / 21:30 / 00:45 Wed | Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted until 19 Nov. | Big D margin: Medicare-for-All momentum → −managed care (UNH, ELV, CI, CVS, HUM). |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Maine | Jackson (D) 72 / 74 · Collins (R) 28 / 26 | 01:44 / 05:54 / 20:13 | 20:44 / 00:54 Wed / 15:13 Wed | Slow. Ranked-choice counting likely (write-in candidates are on the ballot): if no one tops 50%, the final result is likely next week. | D win: −managed care/PBMs (UNH, ELV, CI, CVS, HUM). R hold: +defence funding (GD). |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Massachusetts | Markey (D) 99 / 99 · Deaton (R) 1 / 1 | 01:15 / 04:06 / 08:56 | 20:15 / 23:06 / 03:56 Wed | Mail ballots accepted until Fri 6 Nov. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Mississippi | Hyde-Smith (R) 86 / 86 · Colom (D) 15 / 14 | 01:19 / 03:06 / not until 8 Nov | 20:19 / 22:06 / not until 8 Nov | Mail ballots accepted up to 5 business days after Election Day. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | New Jersey | Booker (D) 98 / 99 · Murphy (R) 2 / 1 | 01:01 / 02:06 / 04:54 | 20:01 / 21:06 / 23:54 | Mail ballots accepted until 9 Nov. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Oklahoma | Hern (R) 98 / 99 · Thomas (D) 2 / 1 | 01:07 / 02:06 / 03:18 | 20:07 / 21:06 / 22:18 | Fast. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Rhode Island | Reed (D) – / 99 · McKay (R) – / 1 | 01:09 / 01:34 / 05:03 | 20:09 / 20:34 / 00:03 Wed | Mail votes come later in the night. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Tennessee | Hagerty (R) 98 / 98 · Bradshaw (D) 2 / 2 | 01:02 / 01:58 / 03:14 | 20:02 / 20:58 / 22:14 | Fast. | – |
| 01:00 / 02:00 | 20:00 / 21:00 | Kansas | Hamilton (D) 64 / 62 · Marshall (R) 37 / 36 | 01:10 / 02:48 / 97% 08:45 | 20:10 / 21:48 / 97% 03:45 Wed | 3-day mail grace period applies (a court blocked the law ending it). | D win: −AI/data centres, −financials, −crypto. R hold: neutral. |
| 01:00 / 02:00 | 20:00 / 21:00 | Michigan | El-Sayed (D) 80 / 80 · Rogers (R) 20 / 20 | 01:06 / 05:12 / 99% 09:40 | 20:06 / 00:12 Wed / 99% 04:40 Wed | AP won't call before 02:00 GMT / 21:00 EST. Detroit and the other big counties report little early; Detroit aims to finish by about 09:00 GMT / 04:00 EST. | D hold: single-payer signal → −managed care (UNH, ELV, CI, CVS, HUM). R flip: R Senate more likely → +tech, +USD. |
| 01:00 / 02:00 | 20:00 / 21:00 | South Dakota | Rounds (R) 94 / 95 · Bengs (I) 6 / 6 | 02:00 / 06:45 / 15:05 | 21:00 / 01:45 Wed / 10:05 Wed | State law bars any results before 02:00 GMT / 21:00 EST. Slow. | – |
| 01:00 / 02:00 | 20:00 / 21:00 | Texas | Talarico (D) 74 / 74 · Paxton (R) 26 / 26 | 01:00 / 01:29 / 05:17 | 20:00 / 20:29 / 00:17 Wed | About two-thirds of the vote (early and absentee) lands in the first update. Bexar County holds its early votes until lines clear. Mail ballots accepted until 17:00 local, Wed 4 Nov. | D win: −AI/data centres (GOOGL, META, AMZN, MSFT, DLR, EQIX), −TX power (VST, NRG, CNP). R hold: +AI/data centres. |
| 01:30 | 20:30 | Arkansas | Cotton (R) 98 / 98 · Shoffner (D) 2 / 2 | 01:35 / 02:42 / 04:39 | 20:35 / 21:42 / 23:39 | Fast. | – |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Colorado | Hickenlooper (D) 99 / 99 · Baisley (R) 1 / 1 | 02:05 / 02:43 / not until 7 Nov | 21:05 / 21:43 / not until 7 Nov | All-mail state, so a long tail. Recount at ≤0.5%. | – |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Iowa | Turek (D) 52 / 52 · Hinson (R) 48 / 46 | 02:01 / 03:33 / 99% 08:20 | 21:01 / 22:33 / 99% 03:20 Wed | Absentee votes in first update at most counties. | D win: −AI/data centres, −financials, −crypto. R hold: neutral. |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Louisiana | Letlow (R) 88 / 88 · Davis (D) 13 / 12 | 02:06 / 02:59 / 04:06 | 21:06 / 21:59 / 23:06 | Fast. | Little read-across; the Meta/Entergy decision (vote due Nov or Dec) sits with the PSC. |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Minnesota | Flanagan (D) 91 / 92 · Tafoya (R) 9 / 8 | 02:08 / 04:40 / >99% 10:19 | 21:08 / 23:40 / >99% 05:19 Wed | All vote types released together. | D hold: Medicare-for-All signal → −managed care (UNH). |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Nebraska | Ricketts (R) 66 / 68 · Osborn (I) 32 / 32 | 02:00 / 03:55 / 08:15 | 21:00 / 22:55 / 03:15 Wed | Early votes first; Omaha and Lincoln release few Election Day votes early. Automatic recount if margin ≤1%. Osborn says he won't caucus with either party. | I win: Senate control could hinge on Osborn's caucus choice. |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | New Mexico | Luján (D) 98 / 99 · Marker (R) 2 / 1 | 02:00 / 03:33 / 05:48 | 21:00 / 22:33 / 00:48 Wed | Automatic recount if margin <0.25%. | – |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Wyoming | Hageman (R) 99 / 99 · Byrd (D) 1 / 1 | 02:43 / 04:57 / 06:30 | 21:43 / 23:57 / 01:30 Wed | Automatic recount if margin <1%. | – |
| 03:00 | 22:00 | Montana | Alme (R) 90 / 90 · Bodnar (I) 11 / 9 · Bankhead (D) 1 / 0 | 03:00 / 08:43 / 16:16 | 22:00 / 03:43 Wed / 11:16 Wed | Counties may hold first results until lines clear. Four-way race. | I win: caucus question for Bodnar. |
| 03:00 / 04:00 | 22:00 / 23:00 | Idaho | Risch (R) 96 / 97 · Achilles (I) 4 / 3 | 04:13 / 05:45 / 10:28 | 23:13 / 00:45 Wed / 05:28 Wed | – | – |
| 03:00 / 04:00 | 22:00 / 23:00 | Oregon | Merkley (D) 99 / 99 · Smith (R) 1 / 1 | 03:00 / 04:10 / not until 8 Nov | 22:00 / 23:10 / not until 8 Nov | All-mail; ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted for 7 days. | – |
| 05:00 / 06:00 | 00:00 / 01:00 Wed | Alaska | Peltola (D) 70 / 72 · Sullivan (R) 30 / 29 | 06:07 / ~07:07 / only ~75% by 12:15 | 01:07 Wed / ~02:07 Wed / ~75% by 07:15 Wed | Most mail votes come in later days. Ranked-choice count on 18 Nov, certification target 25 Nov. A Justice Department suit seeks to block certification if Peltola wins. | D win: D Senate more likely → −AI/data centres, −financials, −crypto. Slow count delays clarity. |
US Governor & Utility Commission races
Governors
| Polls close GMT | Polls close EST | State | Odds now, % (Kalshi / Polymarket) | 2024 pace GMT (first / 50% / 90%) | 2024 pace EST (first / 50% / 90%) | What to watch | Sector / equity read-across |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 19:00 | Georgia | Bottoms (D) 72 / 72 · Jackson (R) 29 / 28 | 00:04 / – / 03:21 (99% 08:15) | 19:04 / – / 22:21 (99% 03:15 Wed) | Open seat; markets have swung to Bottoms. Dec 1 runoff if no one tops 50%. Secretary of State expects results before 05:00 GMT / 00:00 EST. | D win: statewide data-centre freeze → −DLR, META, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL; −SO. R win: local consent only, neutral. |
| 00:00 | 19:00 | South Carolina | Wilson (R) 95 / 95 · Johnson (D) 6 / 5 | 00:19 / 01:50 / 04:14 | 19:19 / 20:50 / 23:14 | Safe R. | – |
| 00:00 | 19:00 | Vermont | Scott (R) 66 / 68 · Janoo (D) 32 / 31 | 00:12 / 01:48 / 03:44 | 19:12 / 20:48 / 22:44 | Rated likely R, but markets price Janoo at about 1 in 3, tighter than the ratings. | – |
| 00:00 / 01:00 | 19:00 / 20:00 | Florida | Donalds (R) 64 / 64 · Jolly (D) 36 / 36 | 00:00 / 00:16 / 99% 03:51 | 19:00 / 19:16 / 99% 22:51 | Open seat, lean R. Fastest count in the country. | – |
| 00:00 – 01:00 | 19:00 – 20:00 | New Hampshire | Ayotte (R) 86 / 85 · Warmington (D) 15 / 14 | – / 03:12 / 06:42 | – / 22:12 / 01:42 Wed | Likely R. AP won't call before 01:00 GMT / 20:00 EST. | – |
| 00:30 | 19:30 | Ohio | Acton (D) 82 / 84 · Ramaswamy (R) 18 / 18 | 00:36 / 02:01 / 04:03 | 19:36 / 21:01 / 23:03 | Open seat, toss-up in ratings but markets favour Acton. Fast count; mail ballots must arrive by poll close. | Negative either way for data centres (AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META, NVDA). D win: data centres pay full utility costs. R win: day-one halt on approvals until projects give nearby homes free power and pay full property taxes → slower OH builds; GEV (on-site power) indicative only. |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Alabama | Tuberville (R) 93 / 93 · Jones (D) 8 / 7 | 01:10 / 03:32 / 04:38 | 20:10 / 22:32 / 23:38 | Open seat, safe R. Automatic recount at ≤0.5%. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Connecticut | Lamont (D) 98 / 98 · Fazio (R) 2 / 2 | 01:12 / 05:25 / 19:06 (date not stated) | 20:12 / 00:25 Wed / 14:06 (date not stated) | Safe D. Automatic recount if margin <0.5% and ≤2,000 votes. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Illinois | Pritzker (D) 98 / 99 · Bailey (R) 2 / 1 | 01:14 / 02:30 / 05:45 | 20:14 / 21:30 / 00:45 Wed | Safe D. Late-arriving postmarked mail counted to 19 Nov. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Maine | Pingree (D) 97 / 97 · Charles (R) 3 / 3 | 01:44 / 05:54 / 20:13 | 20:44 / 00:54 Wed / 15:13 Wed | Open seat, safe D. Slow count. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Maryland | Moore (D) 99 / 99 | 01:22 / 02:24 / not until 11 Nov (82% by 07:00) | 20:22 / 21:24 / not until 11 Nov (82% by 02:00 Wed) | Safe D. Long mail tail. Also on ballot: Question 3 on mid-decade congressional redistricting. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Massachusetts | Healey (D) 98 / 98 · Minogue (R) 2 / 2 | 01:15 / 04:06 / 08:56 | 20:15 / 23:06 / 03:56 Wed | Safe D. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Oklahoma | Mazzei (R) 90 / 89 · Munson (D) 11 / 10 | 01:07 / 02:06 / 03:18 | 20:07 / 21:06 / 22:18 | Open seat, likely R. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Pennsylvania | Shapiro (D) 99 / 99 | 01:00 / 03:12 / 05:48 | 20:00 / 22:12 / 00:48 Wed | Safe D, but a key data-centre state. Automatic recount at ≤0.5%. | D hold: data centres proceed under voluntary cost agreements, neutral. R upset: data-centre pause → −AMZN, −CEG, PPL, EXC, EQT. |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Rhode Island | Foulkes (D) 98 / 98 · Block (I) 2 / – | 01:09 / 01:34 / 05:03 | 20:09 / 20:34 / 00:03 Wed | Open seat, safe D; independent Ken Block on ballot. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Tennessee | Blackburn (R) 94 / 94 · Green (D) 6 / 5 | 01:02 / 01:58 / 03:14 | 20:02 / 20:58 / 22:14 | Open seat, safe R. | – |
| 01:00 / 02:00 | 20:00 / 21:00 | Kansas | Masterson (R) 66 / 66 · Holscher (D) 36 / 36 | 01:10 / 02:48 / 97% 08:45 | 20:10 / 21:48 / 97% 03:45 Wed | D-held open seat; markets favour Masterson (R pickup). 3-day mail grace period applies. | – |
| 01:00 / 02:00 | 20:00 / 21:00 | Michigan | Benson (D) 95 / 95 · James (R) 6 / 5 | 01:06 / 05:12 / 99% 09:40 | 20:06 / 00:12 Wed / 99% 04:40 Wed | Open seat, lean D. AP won't call before 02:00 GMT / 21:00 EST. Big counties report late. | D win: data-centre moratorium → −ORCL; −CMS, DTE growth. R upset: James also backs a pause → little difference. |
| 01:00 / 02:00 | 20:00 / 21:00 | South Dakota | Rhoden (R) 98 / 98 · Ahlers (D) 2 / 2 | 02:00 / 06:45 / 15:05 | 21:00 / 01:45 Wed / 10:05 Wed | Safe R. No results before 02:00 GMT / 21:00 EST. | – |
| 01:00 / 02:00 | 20:00 / 21:00 | Texas | Abbott (R) 60 / 62 · Hinojosa (D) 40 / 38 | 01:00 / 01:29 / 05:17 | 20:00 / 20:29 / 00:17 Wed | Lean R; the closest it has been in years. About two-thirds of the vote lands in the first update. | D win: permit moratorium until lawmakers set rules → −GOOGL, META, AMZN, MSFT, ORCL, DLR, EQIX; −VST, NRG, CNP. R win: grid-approval freeze (pending audit) stays, mildly negative. |
| 01:30 | 20:30 | Arkansas | Sanders (R) 98 / 98 · Love (D) 3 / 2 | 01:35 / 02:42 / 04:39 | 20:35 / 21:42 / 23:39 | Safe R. | – |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Arizona | Hobbs (D) 92 / 94 · Biggs (R) 8 / 6 | 03:00 / 03:12 / only ~66% by 11:30 | 22:00 / 22:12 / ~66% by 06:30 Wed | Lean D. No results before 03:00 GMT / 22:00 EST. Slow; the 2022 race took AP 6 days to call. Automatic recount at ≤0.5%. | Little direct; the data-centre lever is the Corporation Commission (PNW). |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Colorado | Weiser (D) 98 / 98 · Marx (R) 2 / 3 | 02:05 / 02:43 / not until 7 Nov | 21:05 / 21:43 / not until 7 Nov | Open seat, safe D. All-mail, long tail. | – |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Iowa | Sand (D) 88 / 88 · Lahn (R) 12 / 12 | 02:01 / 03:33 / 99% 08:20 | 21:01 / 22:33 / 99% 03:20 Wed | R-held open seat; markets strongly favour Sand (D pickup). | Little direct; hosts MSFT, META, GOOGL data centres. |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Minnesota | Klobuchar (D) 97 / 97 · Demuth (R) 3 / 3 | 02:08 / 04:40 / >99% 10:19 | 21:08 / 23:40 / >99% 05:19 Wed | Open seat, safe D. | – |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Nebraska | Pillen (R) 90 / 90 · Walz (D) 11 / 11 | 02:00 / 03:55 / 08:15 | 21:00 / 22:55 / 03:15 Wed | Likely R. | – |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | New Mexico | Haaland (D) 95 / 95 · Hull (R) 5 / 5 | 02:00 / 03:33 / 05:48 | 21:00 / 22:33 / 00:48 Wed | Open seat; solid D in ratings but flagged as one to watch. Automatic recount <0.25%. | Oil & gas: state-land drilling policy (OXY, EOG, DVN). |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | New York | Hochul (D) 96 / 96 · Blakeman (R) 4 / 4 | 02:01 / 02:55 / 04:46 | 21:01 / 21:55 / 23:46 | Safe D. | – |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Wisconsin | Crowley (D) 86 / 86 · Tiffany (R) 15 / 12 | 02:11 / 03:31 / 07:22 | 21:11 / 22:31 / 02:22 Wed | Open seat; toss-up in ratings, markets favour Crowley. Milwaukee counts late. Recount on request if margin <1 point. | D win: data centres must bring clean power → −MSFT, META, ORCL; +FSLR, NEE. R win: data-centre tax breaks repealed, coal kept. |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Wyoming | Barlow (R) 99 / 99 | 02:43 / 04:57 / 06:30 | 21:43 / 23:57 / 01:30 Wed | Open seat, safe R. | – |
| 03:00 | 22:00 | Nevada | Ford (D) 74 / 76 · Lombardo (R) 24 / 24 | 05:54 / 06:02 / 01:26 Thu | 00:54 Wed / 01:02 Wed / 20:26 Wed | R-held; markets favour Ford. Slow: first results about 3 hours after close in 2024. Postmarked mail accepted for 4 days, with 6 days to fix signatures, so possibly next week. | D win: tax-break pause, cooling-water ban → −GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT builds. R win: supportive, though he has already trimmed tax breaks. |
| 03:00 / 04:00 | 22:00 / 23:00 | Idaho | Little (R) 98 / 99 · Pickens (D) 2 / 1 | 04:13 / 05:45 / 10:28 | 23:13 / 00:45 Wed / 05:28 Wed | Safe R. | – |
| 03:00 / 04:00 | 22:00 / 23:00 | Oregon | Kotek (D) 84 / 84 · Drazan (R) 16 / 16 | 03:00 / 04:10 / not until 8 Nov | 22:00 / 23:10 / not until 8 Nov | Lean D. All-mail; postmarked ballots accepted for 7 days. | – |
| 04:00 | 23:00 | California | Becerra (D) 97 / 98 · Hilton (R) 3 / 2 | 04:12 / 05:56 / only ~62% by 09:24 | 23:12 / 00:56 Wed / ~62% by 04:24 Wed | Safe D (top-two). Counting takes weeks. Billionaire wealth-tax measure also on the ballot. | Wealth-tax ballot measure is a 2028 tax signal; no single-stock read. |
| 05:00 | 00:00 Wed | Hawaii | Green (D) 98 / 99 · Cordery (R) 3 / 1 | 10:07 / 10:08 / 16:11 | 05:07 Wed / 05:08 Wed / 11:11 Wed | Safe D. First results about 5 hours after close. | – |
| 05:00 / 06:00 | 00:00 / 01:00 Wed | Alaska | Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 88 / 89 · Wilson (R) 12 / 11 | 06:07 / ~07:07 / only ~75% by 12:15 | 01:07 Wed / ~02:07 Wed / ~75% by 07:15 Wed | R-held open seat; markets strongly favour Kreiss-Tomkins. Ranked-choice with three Republicans; ranked-choice count 18 Nov. | – |
Utility commissions (PUC)
| Polls close GMT | Polls close EST | Commission & seat | 2024 state pace GMT (first / 50% / 90%) | 2024 state pace EST (first / 50% / 90%) | What to watch tonight | Sector / equity read-across |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 19:00 | Georgia PSC, District 3: Hubbard (D, inc.) v Fitz Johnson (R) | 00:04 / – / 03:21 | 19:04 / – / 22:21 | Control at stake (3 R – 2 D now). Democrats win both seats = 3–2 D flip. Elected statewide; Dec 1 runoff if under 50%. Rematch of 2025, when Hubbard won about 63%. | D sweep of both seats: D control → −SO capex, −GA data centres (DLR, META, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL). R: status quo. |
| 00:00 | 19:00 | Georgia PSC, District 5 (open): Tolbert (R) v Edwards (D) v Blooming (L) | 00:04 / – / 03:21 | 19:04 / – / 22:21 | Control decided together with District 3. The Libertarian makes a Dec 1 runoff more likely. | D: data centres pay "fair share", plus a pause. R: pro-data-centre, wary of overbuilding. |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Oklahoma Corporation Commission (open): Boles (R) v Eastman (D) | 01:07 / 02:06 / 03:18 | 20:07 / 21:06 / 22:18 | No control change possible (3–0 R). | R: continuity (AEP, DVN). |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Alabama PSC, Places 1 & 2 (both open): Gentry (R) v Gordon (D); Zeigler (R) v McNeil (D) | 01:10 / 03:32 / 04:38 | 20:10 / 22:32 / 23:38 | No control change possible. Both Republican nominees beat incumbents by attacking Alabama Power rates. | Tougher on rates either way → −SO. |
| 01:00 / 02:00 | 20:00 / 21:00 | North Dakota PSC, 2 of 3 seats: Haugen-Hoffart (R, inc.) v Pederson (D); Kringstad (R, inc.) v Kelsh (D) | 01:25 / 03:35 / 05:00 | 20:25 / 22:35 / 00:00 Wed | Democratic control is a long shot in a deeply Republican state. Note: AP gives poll closes of 20:00 / 21:00 EST, earlier than the tracker's 22:00 / 23:00. | Sentiment gauge on power prices (XEL). |
| 01:00 / 02:00 | 20:00 / 21:00 | South Dakota PUC (open): Haggar (R) v Kloucek (D) | 02:00 / 06:45 / 15:05 | 21:00 / 01:45 Wed / 10:05 Wed | No control change possible. No results before 02:00 GMT / 21:00 EST. | – |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Louisiana PSC, District 1 (open): Hilferty (R) v Norris (D) v Justin (no party) | 02:06 / 02:59 / 04:06 | 21:06 / 21:59 / 23:06 | Control at stake (3 R – 2 D now). A Norris win plus a Democratic hold in District 5 = 3–2 D flip. | D win (+ D hold in D5): D control → risk to the Entergy gas build for Meta: −ETR, META timing. |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Louisiana PSC, District 5 (open): Green (D) v Atkins (R) | 02:06 / 02:59 / 04:06 | 21:06 / 21:59 / 23:06 | A Republican pickup = 4–1 R. This north Louisiana seat is the heart of the Meta/Entergy build. | R pickup: smooth path for the Entergy/Meta build → +ETR. |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Nebraska PSC, District 2 (open): McCann (R) v DeBoer (D) | 02:00 / 03:55 / 08:15 | 21:00 / 22:55 / 03:15 Wed | No control change possible. | – |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Arizona Corporation Commission, 2 seats (top two win): Thompson (R, inc.), Heap (R) v Hill (D), Pratte (D) | 03:00 / 03:12 / ~66% by 11:30 | 22:00 / 22:12 / ~66% by 06:30 Wed | No control change possible (5–0 R); best Democratic case is 3–2 R. No Arizona results before 03:00 GMT / 22:00 EST. | D wins: more data-centre cost/timing risk; the rate case drives PNW. |
| 03:00 | 22:00 | Montana PSC, Districts 1 (open) & 5: Pattison (R) v Cheek (D); Bukacek (R, inc.) v Hamm (D) | 03:00 / 08:43 / 16:16 | 22:00 / 03:43 Wed / 11:16 Wed | No control change possible (5–0 R). | – |
What it means
Election-night previews of this kind are a sequencing exercise rather than a news event in themselves: the tradable information arrives in a fixed order, with exit-poll embargo lifts and the first fast-counting states setting the tone before the slower, control-deciding races resolve. The established pattern is that early calls in safe seats move little, while the first genuinely competitive results, here the Eastern and Midwestern Senate races closing in the first hours, drive the bulk of the repricing in index futures, the dollar and the front of the curve; thin overnight liquidity has historically exaggerated moves that partly retrace once slower counts land. The piece's framework is the standard one: a unified outcome of either party carries a clean sector rotation, with the Democratic sweep scenario weighted toward managed care, staples and renewables at the expense of financials, defence, crypto and the AI/data-centre complex, while a split chambers outcome historically raises shutdown and debt-ceiling risk premia. The less familiar wrinkle is the state-level data-centre channel: gubernatorial and utility commission races in Georgia, Texas, Ohio, Louisiana and Arizona transmit directly into power names, data-centre REITs and the hyperscalers through permitting and cost-allocation decisions, a transmission path that operates independently of federal control. Prediction-market odds of the kind cited have tended to converge late and can gap on the first county-level surprises, so the tells are the early-reporting counties in the closest Senate races and whether ranked-choice or runoff states push final control calls into the following days, as has occurred in past cycles. The calendar risk is that control itself may not be callable on the night, which in prior episodes has left the initial rotation trade vulnerable to reversal as late counts arrive.
Sources
- Iraq's Oil Minister says Iraq has reached an agreement with Chevron (CVX) on the West Qurna-2 oilfield
- US Midterms: Senate, Governor and PUC indicative timings
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