US Midterms Cheat Sheet for Traders

• On Tuesday (November 3rd), voters head to the polls to decide 35 Senate seats, all 435 House seats, 36 governorships, and public utility commissioners in 9 states.
• Senate: 35 seats up for grabs (22 R, 13 D); GOP holds a 53-47 majority. Key battlegrounds are mostly GOP-held. Dems need a net +4; Polymarket gives them a 73% chance, and DDHQ forecasts D 52-48.
• House: All 435 seats up; GOP holds a slim 218-214 majority. Dems need a net +3. Markets price a 95% chance of a Dem House, and DDHQ forecasts D 241-194.
• Polymarket odds of congressional outcomes are: Democratic sweep (72%); Democratic House and Republican Senate (23%); and Republican sweep (6%).
• Governors & PUCs in focus, as state-level races will shape near-term data-centre policy.
• 36 governor races (18 D-held, 18 R-held); 9 states also hold elections for their directly elected PUC commissioners. * D Sweep: Consumer and healthcare names gain (softer SNAP/Medicaid cuts, possible ACA subsidy restoration); AI faces state-level build-out risk, financials lose deregulation upside, and Treasury supply risk fades with no Reconciliation 3.0.
• Split (D House, R Senate): Gridlock lifts shutdown and debt-limit risk; healthcare and borrowing roughly unchanged, modest SNAP relief; USD-negative on growth risks.
• R Sweep: Pro-AI, deregulatory agenda helps AI, financials, defence and nuclear; Reconciliation 3.0 keeps Treasury supply risk alive, and SNAP/tax-credit cuts weigh slightly on staples, retail and restaurants.

• Senate: GOP holds 53-47 seats; 35 seats are up for election (22 R, 13 D), and Dems need a net +4. Polymarket gives Dems a 73% chance of taking the Senate.
• CPR sees Dems +2 to +6, with seven Toss-ups: six GOP-held (AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX) plus Dem-held MI. That leaves the GOP majority exposed as Trump’s approval slides. Elsewhere, NH and MN are Lean D, GA and GOP-held NC are Likely D, SC is Lean R, and NE and MS are Likely R.
• DDHQ leans more Dem, with just four Toss-ups: it moves AK and MI to Lean D and NH and MN to Likely D. It is more GOP-leaning only on KS (Lean R), and sees NE (Lean R) and FL (Likely R) as more competitive than CPR does.

• National: 54.8mln early ballots cast (56% in person); registered Dems lead D+11 (46%-35%), and D+15 on mail ballots requested/sent.
• Senate battlegrounds: 18.5mln cast, mostly in person (~83%); Dem lead narrower at D+5 (45%-40%), D+12 on mail ballots.
• Dems lead early ballots cast in 8 key Senate states (OH D+3 to MN D+28); GOP leads in 6 (AK R+9, NE R+5, KS and FL R+3, TX R+2, SC R+1).
• Dem leads in cast ballots outpace mail requests in IA, ME and MN. KS has flipped from even on Friday to R+3, despite a D+9 mail-request lead.
• The figures show who has voted, not how. Registered Democrats typically lead early, and the gaps usually narrow as Republicans vote later in person and on Election Day.

• Alaska (R – Toss-up/Lean D): Sullivan (R, inc.) vs. Peltola (D). Last D win: 2008. RCP: Peltola 49.2-47.8. DDHQ: Peltola 61%.
• Iowa (R – Toss-up): Open – Hinson (R) vs. Turek (D). Last D win: 2008. RCP: Hinson 46.8-46.5 (recent flip). DDHQ: Hinson 53%.
• Kansas (R – Toss-up/Lean R): Marshall (R, inc.) vs. Hamilton (D). Last D win: 1932. RCP: Hamilton 49.8-46.2 (recent flip). DDHQ: Marshall 50%.
• Maine (R – Toss-up): Collins (R, inc.) vs. Jackson (D). Last D win: 1988. RCP: Jackson 49.9-46.6. DDHQ: Jackson 63%.
• Michigan (D – Toss-up/Lean D): Open – El-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R). Last R win: 1994. RCP: El-Sayed 50.1-44.8. DDHQ: El-Sayed 76%.
• Ohio (R – Toss-up): Husted (R, inc.) vs. Brown (D). Last D win: 2018. Special election for Vance's Class 3 seat; DeWine appointed Husted in 2025. RCP: Brown 48.9-46.1. DDHQ: Brown 55%.
• Texas (R – Toss-up): Open – Paxton (R) vs. Talarico (D). Last D win: 1988. RCP: Talarico 49.0-46.5. DDHQ: Talarico 61%.
• Toss-up races due between 7:30PM and 9PM ET (OH, ME, MI, KS, TX, IA), with AK later at 12–1AM ET. Lean races due between 7PM and 9PM ET (SC, NH, MN, NE). Likely races due between 7PM and 8PM ET (GA, FL, NC, MS).

• GOP holds a slim 218-214 majority (plus 1 GOP-aligned Independent, 2 vacancies), with all 435 seats up Tuesday. History favours Dems, as the president’s party has lost House seats in 20 of 22 midterms since 1938.
• CPR now sees Dems favoured outright for a majority after shifting 19 races their way on Oct 23, with a likely gain of 12-22 seats. DDHQ projects D 241-194, and markets price a 95% chance of a Dem House.
• Toss-up races due between 6PM and 9PM ET, with MT-01 at 10PM ET and CA-22 at 11PM ET.

• 36 governorships are up (18 D-held, 18 R-held); DDHQ sees Dems winning 22, a net +4 (flipping AK, GA, IA, NV, OH; losing KS).
• CPR Toss-ups: GA, NV (R-held) and KS (D-held). Lean D: MI, OR, WI, plus R-held AK, IA, OH. Lean R: FL, NE, TX.
• AI raises the stakes in Tuesday's gubernatorial elections: with no federal or executive clampdown likely, policy risk shifts to the states.
• Governors appoint PUC commissioners in 36 states and control tax breaks, permits and executive orders. 9 states elect PUC commissioners this month (AL, AZ, GA, LA, MT, NE, ND, OK, SD). PUCs set data-centre power terms and decide who pays for new grid capacity.
• Toss-up races due between 7PM and 9PM ET (GA, KS), with NV later at 10PM ET.

1) Dem Sweep = Big risk-off, stocks skid >10%, US dollar, bond yields fall into year-end, international stocks outperform on less trade & military wars, but Europe outperforms Asia (loses Trump AI friend); Dem sweep signals electoral shift from populist capitalism to populist socialism, says next big direction in tax & regulation is up not down (EPS negative); 2027 policies to lower inflation, healthcare, improve affordability challenge K-shape wealth boom, AI capex boom, stocks “too big to fail” Wall St zeitgeist; most important, loss of political capital = less ability for Trump to coerce resources, corporations, foreign governments into support for policy priorities of AI war with China, resource monopolization

2) R Senate, D House = Risk-on (stocks bid >5%) as narrative “Gridlock = Goldilocks” so play “US presidential cycle” analog (in which Year 3 strongest performer); Trump holds Senate/Abbott holds Texas +ve tech (no fear of AI data centre brakes, US AI-put continues... implicit US govt guarantee for bonds to fund US AI buildout), +ve US dollar (“exceptionalism” returns), but less positive bonds as no “improve my affordability” electoral wave; biggest and most bullish surprise would be a GOP sweep.

3) GOP Sweep: Most bullish surprise (stocks >10%) as AI rips into bubbly ‘27, stock market goes full “Darwinian” trading “long artificial intelligence” (NDX), “short artificial irrelevance” (SPW).

Midterms have historically followed a reliable script: the president's party almost always loses House seats, and this cycle is no exception in polling terms, with the body itself noting that pattern has held in 20 of 22 midterms over a long span. The established market sequence around US elections of this kind is a pre-event vol premium that collapses once results are known, with the overnight session traded in thin liquidity as state-level calls trickle in through the evening and the composition of Congress only becoming clear late; the body's poll-closing ladder for the Senate toss-ups is the practical calendar for that sequence. The scenario framing here splits along a familiar axis: unified Democratic control is read as risk-off and USD-negative with fiscal restraint easing Treasury supply concerns, divided government revives the long-standing gridlock-is-Goldilocks trade and raises shutdown and debt-limit brinkmanship risk, and a Republican sweep extends the deregulation and AI-capex impulse at the cost of heavier issuance. The less standard angle is the state layer: gubernatorial and public utility commission races now carry genuine sector risk because data-centre power pricing and grid cost allocation are set at that level, a transmission channel into the AI complex that has only recently entered election coverage. Early-vote numbers deserve the caveat the piece itself carries: registered Democrats typically bank votes early and the gap narrows on election day, so the partisan split of ballots cast says little about outcomes. The follow-ons are the usual ones for election nights: which toss-up states break first, whether any race drags past the session, and whether the result matches pricing, since the scenario baskets published by the major houses mean positioning is already expressed and the asymmetric move historically comes on surprise rather than on the modal outcome.