BCB Forecasts: 2026 GDP 1.8% (prev. 2.0%); 2027 1.4%.

The pattern to note is the combination: growth revised down across the horizon while inflation is projected sitting on target only out at the relevant policy horizon, which is the standard configuration in which the bank has historically signalled that restrictive rates are doing their work and that the easing question is one of timing. The external accounts matter for the transmission: a wider current account deficit alongside a still-sizeable trade surplus implies the gap is being driven by the income and services side, and the funding of that deficit is what ties the forecasts to the BRL, the channel through which Brazilian inflation forecasts have typically been made or broken. In past episodes, Copom has tended to treat its own projections as conditional on the exchange rate and on fiscal assumptions, so the market read-through usually runs through the minutes and the subsequent FX path rather than the headline numbers. Worth noting is whether the conditional inflation path assumes the Selic following the curve priced in the survey, since deviations between that assumption and delivered policy have been the recurring source of forecast revisions.