[PREVIEW] SNB Policy Announcement on 24th September 2026

• SNB is expected to keep rates on hold at 0.00%, according to all economists surveyed by Reuters; ING and UBS also share this view.
• Swiss inflation has been rising, largely attributed to higher energy prices and a weaker CHF, but still remains within the Bank’s 0-2% target range.
• Aside from the decision, focus will be on the updated inflation projections, which are expected to be mildly revised higher. Intervention language likely to be reiterated.

OVERVIEW: SNB is widely expected to keep rates on hold at 0.00%, given inflation remains well within the Bank's 0-2% inflation band. Inflation has been moving higher, though upside has been attributed to a weaker CHF and a slight pick-up in energy prices amid the Iran conflict. SNB Chairman Schlegel suggested that while inflation has been moving higher, it remains within the price stability range. Aside from the decision, focus will be on updated economic projections, which are expected to be subject to mild upward revisions. Attention will also be on any guidance for December's meeting and next year, as well as anything related to intervention. However, these points are also unlikely to surprise markets. As it stands, money markets broadly expect rates to remain on hold for the remainder of the year and into next year, though some analysts see some chance of a hike next year.

DATA: Swiss CPI M/M topped expectations at 0.4% in August (exp. 0%), while Y/Y rose 0.8% (exp. 0.5%). Much of the strength was due to a significant jump in petroleum prices, which rose 25.2% Y/Y. However, it is worth noting that when this is excluded, headline inflation remains at a modest 0.3% Y/Y, indicating that second-round effects have not crept into the economy. Recent pressure on the CHF has also likely played a part in the uptick in inflation. On the activity side, sports-adjusted GDP (Q2) rose 1.5% Q/Q, indicating that the Swiss economy is faring very well.

INFLATION PROJECTIONS: Modest upward revisions are expected from the SNB's current average inflation forecasts of 0.6% in 2026 and 2027 and 0.7% in 2028. Note: The cut-off date for the projections is not explicitly listed, but is typically a couple of weeks before the announcement. Therefore, the latest projections may not encapsulate the recent surge in energy prices.

CHF: Intervention commentary from the previous meeting will also be watched. There is some likelihood that the commentary from the last meeting will be reiterated: "if necessary, the SNB has an increased willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market". However, the CHF has fallen c. 2% against the EUR since the last meeting, which could see policymakers shift their intervention commentary back to more balanced language that the SNB stands ready to intervene if necessary. Note: "Middle East conflict means we remain prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market should the need arise" hit a major newswire earlier in the week, but was later recalled due to an error.