BCB Poll: Economists see year-end 2026 Selic rate at 13.50% (prev. 13.25%) and year-end 2027 at 12.50% (prev. 11.75%), according to the weekly BCB Focus Market Survey

The Focus survey is the central bank's own weekly poll of market economists, and it occupies an unusual position in Brazil's policy framework: Copom communications have historically referenced it directly, so upward drift in the median is treated less as commentary and more as an input into the reaction function. Revisions of this kind, where both the current-year and following-year endpoints move higher in the same week, have tended to reflect either sticky services inflation and indexation effects or fiscal slippage feeding through risk premia rather than any single data print. The distinction worth drawing is between a higher terminal Selic and a later start to easing: the former lifts the belly of the DI curve, the latter steepens the front end, and prior episodes of Focus drift have usually repriced timing before level. The customary sequence in past cycles of this sort is hawkish Copom minutes or speeches validating the drift, followed by the curve testing whether the printed Selic path catches up to the survey. Worth watching is whether the inflation expectations components of the same survey move in tandem, since rate-path revisions accompanied by unanchoring in the inflation medians have historically been the configuration that forces the BCB's hand rather than the reverse.