BCB poll shows economists see year-end 2026 Selic rate at 13.25% (prev. 13.25%) and year-end 2027 at 11.75% (prev. 12.00%)

BCB poll shows economists see year-end 2026 Selic rate at 13.25% (prev. 13.25%) and year-end 2027 at 11.75% (prev. 12.00%)

This is the BCB's weekly Focus survey, a consensus tracker rather than a policy signal; its value lies in the direction of revisions, not the level. A steady near-term median alongside a downward revision to the following year's endpoint is the classic pattern of easing expectations being pulled forward while the hold period extends, a combination that has historically steepened the short end of the DI curve rather than repriced the whole strip. When Brazil's survey medians drift in this fashion, the move tends to be gradual and confirmation-dependent, driven by successive inflation prints and the central bank's own communication cadence, since the BCB has in past cycles adjusted its path more predictably than peers and the survey typically lags the copom statement rather than leads it. The distinction worth drawing is between survey convergence toward the bank's stated guidance and survey divergence from it; here the revision is small and one-sided, which reads as alignment, not a challenge. The follow-ons that matter are the next inflation releases and the minutes, since a survey median this stable tends to break only on data, not on the survey itself. As an input, this is a sentiment anchor for the rates curve, not a catalyst.