BoC holds rates as expected as 2.25%

A hold with the expected print keeps the story in the statement, and this one reads hawkish at the margin: upside inflation risks flagged as increased, balanced against tariff-driven uncertainty on growth. That combination, an inflation warning alongside an explicit growth caveat, has in past cycles at this bank and its peers tended to extend the pause rather than set up an imminent move, with the front end repricing on each subsequent data print rather than on the decision itself. The acknowledgement that financial conditions have tightened since July is the tell to note: central banks citing tightening conditions have historically treated that as doing some of the work for them, which lowers the bar for staying on hold while keeping optionality language intact. The distinction worth drawing is between trade-related uncertainty, which argues for waiting, and the inflation risk wording, which caps how dovish the reaction can run; comparable statements have tended to see initial two-way moves in the currency and front end fade as the qualifier list absorbs the hawkish sentence. The follow-ons are the press conference framing of what would make the rebound unsustainable, the next inflation release, and any concrete escalation or resolution on the trade file, which the statement makes the binding constraint on the path.