BoE DMP (Oct): 1-year CPI expectation 3.3% (prev. 3.1%), 3-year CPI expectation 2.8% (prev. 2.8%)

• Year-ahead wage growth 3.4% (prev. 3.4%).

The Decision Maker Panel sits in the tier of soft inflation data the MPC has leaned on when judging persistence, and its one-year CPI expectation has historically moved in step with near-term headline prints rather than leading them, so an uptick reads as confirmation of the recent inflation pulse more than fresh information. The more consequential split for the MPC's framing is between the one-year and three-year horizons: a rise confined to the near horizon is consistent with transitory pressure, while an unanchored three-year reading is what has historically hardened the case against easing. Here the three-year print is unchanged, which limits the hawkish signal, and the wage line is flat, a detail that matters because wage expectations have been the panel's stickiest component and the one most closely tied to the persistence debate inside the committee. The established sequence after firmer DMP readings has been modest front-end repricing and a slightly higher bar for dovish MPC rhetoric, reversed quickly when the official CPI and wage prints fail to corroborate. Worth watching is whether the next official labour and CPI releases point the same way, and whether MPC members cite the survey explicitly in upcoming commentary.