Brazil's Bolsonaro is seen with 42% vs Lula's 40% in the Presidential election run-off, according to Quaest

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Brazil's Bolsonaro is seen with 42% vs Lula's 40% in the Presidential election run-off, according to Quaest

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Context

Late-campaign Brazilian polling of this kind has historically been a live BRL driver, with the real and local equities trading the perceived fiscal credibility of the two candidates rather than ideology per se: markets in past cycles have favoured the candidate read as more orthodox on spending, and a tighter race compresses that premium. A two-point spread inside typical polling error leaves the result genuinely open, which has tended to keep positioning light and volatility elevated into the vote rather than resolving directionally on any single survey. The distinction worth drawing is between the first-round margin and the run-off dynamic, since Brazilian run-offs have repeatedly turned on endorsement flows and abstention rates that headline vote intention numbers capture poorly. The follow-ons are the next polls from the other established houses, the BRL basis and short-dated implied vol, and any shift in the candidates' fiscal signalling as undecideds shrink. Single-poll moves in the currency have tended to fade when not corroborated by the broader polling average.

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