CBA has brought forward its RBA rate hike call to September from November, while ANZ now expects the RBA to raise rates by 25bps in September and November

Forecast changes from the major domestic banks' economics teams have historically been the most market-relevant sell-side commentary on the RBA, since these houses sit close to the local data flow and their revisions have tended to cluster: when one major bank brings a call forward, others have typically followed within days, and the convergence itself has often been the signal rather than any single revision. The notable feature here is direction, calls moving earlier and toward consecutive hikes rather than later, which in past episodes has preceded repricing in the front end of the Australian curve and in rate-sensitive bank and housing names, with the belly following only once the shift was validated by prints. The distinction worth drawing is between a timing change and a cycle change: ANZ pencilling in back-to-back moves implies a sequence, not a one-off, which is the more aggressive of the two revisions and the one the OIS curve has historically been slower to fully absorb. Worth watching is whether the remaining majors align, and how the calls sit against the next inflation print and the RBA's own rhetoric, since bank economists in Australia have a record of marking to the Governor's tone as much as to the data. As forecast commentary rather than policy, the information content is in the consensus drift.