Commerzbank still expects oil prices to fall further in 2027; European gas prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels before a major LNG capacity expansion expected in H2'28

Commerzbank still expects oil prices to fall further in 2027; European gas prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels before a major LNG capacity expansion expected in H2'28.

Bank commodity desk forecasts of this kind are best read as a supply-cycle view rather than a directional trade call, and Commerzbank's framing here is the familiar one: crude seen as oversupplied on a multi-year horizon, European gas structurally repriced until new LNG export capacity arrives. The distinction worth drawing is between the two markets named. The oil leg is a global balance call, contingent on OPEC discipline and non-OPEC supply growth, where house forecasts of further declines have historically been most vulnerable to supply-side intervention by the cartel. The gas leg is an infrastructure call, and the mechanism is concrete: TTF has traded at a premium to pre-war norms because of lost pipeline volumes and reliance on seaborne LNG, so the path back runs through liquefaction additions and the freight and regas chain rather than demand. Forecasts anchored to a specific capacity wave, here H2'28, have in past episodes slipped with project delays, FID slippage, and commissioning overruns, which is the usual tell for whether the timeline holds. The follow-ons are whether other houses cluster around the same supply-wave timing and how the view sits against the forward curves in both markets. As sell-side research rather than a policy signal, this is one desk's medium-term map, useful mainly for framing calendar spreads and the back end of the gas curve.