[MARKET ANALYSIS] T-note futures remain lacklustre after the prior day's bear flattening

USTs: -3 ticks

• Lacks demand after settling lower yesterday as the curve flattened amid the continued hawkish repricing of Fed expectations and with renewed geopolitical uncertainty after President Trump commented that the US does not need an Iran deal.

Bunds: -37 ticks

• Tested the 122.00 level to the downside after recent selling pressure and with participants awaiting data releases including German Wholesale Prices, European Employment and GDP revisions.

JGBs: -62 ticks

• Tracked the downside in global counterparts as yields climbed higher and with very few fresh catalysts overnight amid a quiet calendar.

Sessions of this kind, where Treasuries drift lower in the wake of a hawkish repricing and a bear flattening, tend to be continuation moves rather than new information: the front end has already absorbed the shift in rate expectations and the follow-through without fresh catalysts is usually shallow. Bear flattening of the sort described, short yields rising faster than long, has historically accompanied episodes where markets pull forward or extend the expected restrictive stance, and the sequence that typically matters next is whether the repricing is validated by incoming inflation and labour data or fades into the next round of Fed commentary. The parallel weakness in Bunds and JGBs points to a common global rates impulse rather than idiosyncratic stress, with European price action leaning on scheduled data revisions and Tokyo following offshore leads in a thin calendar, both familiar patterns when the driver is US-centred. The geopolitical element cited, remarks downplaying the need for an Iran agreement, sits in the risk-premium channel through crude, and oil-linked inflation anxiety has on past occasions reinforced rather than offset hawkish rate repricing. The tells worth noting are whether the front end leads further selling, whether the flattener persists or steepens, and how supply and data land against the repriced path.