CRUDE WRAP: WTI (X6) FUTURES SETTLE USD 0.36 HIGHER AT USD 91.85/BBL

Wraps of this kind, where the tape closes firmer into a weekend on shipping-lane risk rather than a confirmed supply loss, follow a well-worn pattern: the geopolitical premium builds through Friday afternoon, freight and insurance costs on Gulf transits reprice first, and the Monday open tends to gap on whatever the wires carry over the weekend. The distinction worth drawing is between disruption rhetoric and actual halted flows; episodes centred on threats to the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab have historically faded when cargoes keep moving, and held only when transits or loadings are genuinely interrupted, since a large share of seaborne crude passes those chokepoints and even precautionary rerouting tightens prompt balances via delays rather than lost barrels. The shut Gulf of Mexico output cited is the other live channel, though hurricane-related shut-ins of this type have typically been temporary, with production restored within days once platforms are re-manned, making the duration rather than the headline volume the relevant variable. The rig count is a slow signal and rarely moves the front of the curve against this backdrop. What matters next is whether reported vessel strikes are confirmed and repeated, any insurance or transit-cost follow-through, and whether the supply shut-ins extend beyond the storm window.