CRUDE WRAP: WTI (Z6) SETTLES USD 1.86 LOWER AT 99.90/BBL; BRENT (F7) SETTLES USD 1.33 LOWER AT 109.41/BBL

The crude complex was lower, albeit in choppy trade on Tuesday, as participants await the next major de- or re-escalatory move. WTI and Brent were initially pressured in the European morning, but swiftly reversed and rose to session highs of USD 102.82/bbl and USD 111.91/bbl, respectively, after IRIB reported that Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery (550k BPD) had been targeted by missiles with large plumes of smoke seen. Later reports suggested Saudi Arabia had contained a fire at the site, although there has been no independent confirmation. Benchmarks hovered at highs before a knee-jerk drop when Iran’s Supreme Leader called for proposals outlining acceptable conditions to end the war. Energy then continued to trend lower through the US afternoon to settle just off lows. On the US/Iran footing, Iranian President met Russian President in Moscow. Pezeshkian said there is no point in hoping for the US to resolve problems in the Middle East. Putin said he expects the situation to develop positively and that Russia is fulfilling all its obligations on projects in Iran, adding that construction at the Bushehr nuclear power plant continues. Elsewhere, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said the Ukraine conflict is likely to continue and escalate.

On the supply footing, Trump said he will visit Corpus Christi, Texas, and that "the US will receive 1mln bbls of Venezuelan oil, and is just the first shipment of billions of bbls to come". Ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, source reports said that the group is expected to maintain December oil production targets. Ahead, weekly private inventory data after-hours awaits.

A session of this shape, where crude spikes on a reported strike against Gulf export infrastructure and then fades to close lower, is the standard template for geopolitical risk-premium pricing in a range-bound market: the initial bid prices the tail risk of supply loss, and the retracement follows once the facility is reported contained and no physical disruption is confirmed. The Ras Tanura episode fits that sequence, with the knee-jerk move lower on the Iranian Supreme Leader's de-escalatory language showing how quickly headline premium is unwound when the diplomatic channel reopens. Worth noting that the benchmark settled lower despite the scare, which in past episodes of this kind has signalled the market is treating supply threats as noise absent confirmed barrel loss, while verbal de-escalation is treated as signal. The Venezuela shipment remarks and a Russian presence on the Iranian file both speak to incremental supply availability rather than constraint. The near-term calendar is the driver: private inventory data after the settle, the Sunday OPEC+ meeting where sources point to steady December targets, and any independent confirmation or denial on the refinery damage. The distinction that matters is between headline-driven intraday spikes, which have historically mean-reverted within the session, and confirmed physical outages, which is when the curve structure rather than the flat price does the repricing.