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ECB President Lagarde says she expects inflation to stabilise sustainably at the 2% target

Lagarde's expectation of inflation stabilizing at the 2% target is a hawkish signal, potentially affirming the ECB's focus on price stability amidst geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions.

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ECB President Lagarde says she expects inflation to stabilise sustainably at the 2% target

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  • We are operating in a volatile global environment marked by heightened geopolitical tensions and persistent policy uncertainty.
  • Supply chains are becoming more fragmented, and industrial policies are reshaping global competition.
  • Despite the challenging environment, economic activity in the euro area has been resilient. 
  • The economy is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of last year and by 1.5% in 2025 as a whole – better than what was projected for 2025 at the start of that year.
  • Reiterates data-dependent, meeting by meeting approach.
  • ECB remains focused on price stability and fostering a stronger Europe.
  • A strong currency rests on the solid foundation of strong institutions.
Context

Her emphasis on a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach suggests ongoing flexibility in policy decisions, which could influence market perceptions of future rate trajectories. This outlook may lead to some strengthening of the euro and reassessment of fixed income positions as the market weighs the implications for ECB actions in the context of current economic resilience.

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