Eisenkot-led bloc set to be larger than Netanyahu-led bloc, Channel 11 exit poll shows

Eisenkot-led bloc set to be larger than Netanyahu-led bloc, Channel 11 exit poll shows.

Exit polls in Israeli elections have a track record of correctly identifying the larger bloc while overstating or understating seat counts by a few mandates, so the headline read is directional rather than final: bloc ordering from an exit poll has historically held more often than precise arithmetic, and revisions between the exit poll and the actual count have on past occasions flipped narrow projected majorities. The operative question is not the bloc lead itself but coalition mathematics: Israeli governments are formed by the leader who can assemble a working majority, and a smaller-bloc leader has on multiple occasions retained or taken power because the larger bloc's components could not cohere, particularly where Arab party support or ideologically mismatched partners are required to cross the threshold. Channel 11 is one of several broadcasters whose exit polls typically differ by a seat or two, and convergence across the networks' polls has historically been the more reliable tell than any single one. For the shekel and local assets, episodes of political transition in Israel have tended to trade on the continuity of fiscal and security policy rather than the identity of the premier, with FX sensitivity concentrated around coalition-formation failure and repeat-election risk. The follow-ons are the remaining exit polls, the actual count trend overnight, and early signals from potential kingmaker parties on whom they would recommend to the president.