European Commission assessment finds a 50-tonne single mass threshold under CBAM would exempt 0.87% of embedded emissions, below the 1% cap, based on data through end-March 2026

A 50-tonne de minimis threshold is the proposal designed to do that, and the finding that it exempts under 1% of embedded emissions is the quantitative test the Commission set itself: the mechanism shifts compliance burden off the many small consignments while leaving the carbon coverage of steel, aluminium, cement and fertiliser imports essentially intact. Assessments framed this way have historically served as the analytical basis for legislative amendment rather than as market-moving events in themselves; the follow-ons are the formal proposal, co-legislator positions in Council and Parliament, and any adjustment to the threshold figure during negotiation. The distinction worth drawing is between administrative relief for importers and any change to certificate pricing or phase-in timing, since only the latter touches EUA-linked cost pass-through. Data running to end-March 2026 implies the definitive regime's early surrender data are now informing calibration rather than the transitional reporting period alone.