EUROPEAN OPEN: AAL LN-MMG Brazil deal deal faces EU competition concerns; AKZA NA-AXTA deal faces UK CMA probe; NXT beats in H1, raises FY26 guidance; GBF GY cuts FY26 outlook; NOVN SW ends ALS development after trial failure; Grizzly shorts RBI AV

EUROPEAN OPEN:

• European equities have opened higher. Overnight, APAC stocks traded mixed as the region partially weathered the hawkish reaction triggered by the FOMC policy announcement (see below for our FOMC recap). US stock futures are up, and Treasury yields are slightly narrower after the Fed’s 25bps rate hike, along with a reinforced commitment to curb inflation; US 10yr Treasury yields eased to beneath 5.00%, ending eight days of increases. Markets are pricing around 50% probability of another hike in October.
• Gold rose to near USD 4,320/oz after three days of declines as Treasury yields eased following the Fed rate hike, though bullion pared some gains and trades around USD 4,300/oz as the European day gets underway. Copper was little changed after the Fed’s rate hike and hawkish signals, with LME copper dipping as the USD strengthened. Still, analysts say that expectations of data centre and renewable-energy demand, plus mine disruptions, remained supportive, while the absence of new US copper tariffs reduced earlier supply-squeeze speculation.
• Crude futures have held on to losses as Saudi Arabia moved to restore its damaged East-West pipeline; Saudi Arabia aims to restore about half the pipeline’s capacity within days and full operations within six weeks. Brent traded below USD 105/bbl, while WTI slipped beneath USD 102/bbl.
• In trade news, President Trump threatened heavy tariffs or reduced trade with the EU if its proposal to make Canada an associate member is intended adversely toward the US. Separately, the EU has reportedly asked China to voluntarily limit hybrid-car exports to about 15% of the EU market from more than one-third; Brussels is also seeking restraint in other sectors and more European purchases, warning that otherwise it may impose tighter trade measures. Elsewhere, the UK will reportedly delay its next EU reset summit unless Brussels discusses “Made in Europe” rules that could exclude British firms from key contracts; the government wants the Industrial Accelerator Act added to negotiations, fearing billions in lost trade. Germany, the Netherlands, Poland and Italy reportedly support UK inclusion, while France remains unconvinced.
• In French politics, Marine Le Pen left open the possibility of a no-confidence vote over France’s 2027 budget while saying she would avoid worsening public finances. She opposes several government budget policies, and reiterated plans to cut VAT, reduce spending and EU contributions, limit immigration and restrict Schengen free movement to EU citizens.
• Ahead, European traders will be eying the BoE policy announcement; the MPC is expected to hold the Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, and slow annual QT to GBP 50bln (from GBP 70bln). Active gilt sales are expected around GBP 20bln, potentially excluding 20yr and 30yr bonds. Analysts say mixed inflation, growth and labour data support waiting until after the 28th October Budget.

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• MATERIALS: The European Commission warned MMG’s (1208 HK) proposed acquisition of Anglo American’s (AAL LN) Brazilian nickel business could reduce competition and raise European stainless-steel costs; regulators are concerned MMG may divert low-carbon ferronickel away from Europe. MMG can respond before the Commission’s final decision, due by 30th November. The UK CMA launched a probe into Akzo Nobel’s (AKZA NA) deal with Axalta (AXTA), examining whether the merger could lessen competition; a decision is due on 11th November.
• INDUSTRIALS: Bilfinger (GBF GY) cut its FY26 outlook, now expects revenue of EUR 5.3-5.7bln (prev. saw 5.4-5.9bln) and an EBITA margin of between 3.2-3.6% (prev. saw 5.8%-6.2%); it cited increasing investment restraint amid the continued Middle East conflict; it backed its 2030 mid-term targets. Of note for defence names, tank maker KNDS and its owners are considering delaying its IPO beyond 2026; advisers cited weak listed defence sector performance, according to Bloomberg. The Wegmann family, which owns 50%, will instead focus on selling up to 40% to the German government. Rheinmetall (RHM GY) and Mercedes-Benz (MBG GY) formalised Team Wolf, making RBSL Telford its Vehicle Integration Centre for integration, testing and validation, with the programme targeting up to 50% UK content.
• ENERGY: Bollore (BOL FP) H1 2026 revenue EUR 1.64bln (prev. 1.55bln), net income EUR 133mln (prev. 242mln), adj. EBITDA EUR 138mln (prev. 138mln); EBITA fell 15% to EUR 104mln, while net cash declined to EUR 1.45bln (from EUR 5.62bln at end-2025), mainly due to dividends.
• HEALTHCARE: Novartis (NOVN SW) discontinued development of VHB937 in ALS after the Phase 2 Astrals study failed to meet its primary or secondary endpoints. Roche (ROP SW) said the Phase 3 CELESTIMO study of Lunsumio plus lenalidomide in relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma met its primary endpoint. AstraZeneca (AZN LN) announced an investment of around CNY 200mln to boost its production and supply capabilities in Wuxi, China. Of note for EssilorLuxottica (EL FP), Snap (SNAP) unveiled USD 2,195 Specs AR glasses, a USD 2,395 cellular version, and Specs Intelligence, partnering with Salesforce (CRM), AWS (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Trifork and HoloLite.
• CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Of note for luxury watch makers, Swiss watch exports stood at 9.1% Y/Y in August (prev. 9.6%). Next (NXT LN) H1 2026 revenue GBP 3.45bln (exp. 3.42bln), pretax profit GBP 569mln (exp. 562mln); it raised FY26 pretax profit guidance to GBP 1.26bln (from GBP 1.24bln). Nike (NKE) appointed Alexandre Arnault to its board; Arnault has served as deputy CEO of Moet Hennessy, LVMH’s (MC FP) wines and spirits division, since February 2025; Nike said his experience leading global brands would support governance, board succession and long-term value creation.
• FINANCIALS: Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO David Solomon on Wednesday said Q3 fixed income trading has been softer than equities, which remain “very strong”; He also expects higher firmwide expenses due to elevated activity, accelerated technology investment and significant charitable giving. Grizzly Research said it is short Raiffeisen Bank (RBI AV), alleging it uncovered USD 1.191bln in Russian trade.
• TECH: Of note for enterprise software names, Salesforce (CRM) CFO Robin Washington said the company remains confident in reaching USD 63bln of revenue by FY30.
• UTILITIES: RWE (RWE GY) agreed to acquire a further 3% stake in M31, lifting its pro rata Amprion holding to around 58% and making RWE M31’s majority shareholder.
• NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: Sodexo (SW FP) upgraded at JPMorgan; Man Group (EMG LN) upgraded at UBS; Kingfisher (KGF LN) upgraded at Deutsche Bank. Dassault Systemes (DSY FP) downgraded at BNP Paribas.

DAY AHEAD:

• EVENTS: President Trump speaks in North Carolina at a campaign event.
• DATA: In Europe, final Eurozone August HICP metrics is expected to see the headline at 3.3% Y/Y (prev. 2.9%), and core at 2.4% Y/Y (prev. 2.5%). In North America, US housing starts (exp. 1.31mln, prev. 1.239mln), building permits prelim (exp. 1.41mln, prev. 1.433mln), and pending home sales (prev. -2.3% M/M; prev. -2.2% Y/Y); weekly initial jobless claims (exp. 208K, prev. 206K) and continuing claims (exp. 1,780K, prev. 1,774K); the Philly Fed manufacturing index is also due (prev. 47.4). In Canada, PPI data will be released.
• CENTRAL BANKS: BoE expected to hold rates at 3.75%, with the MPC vote seen unchanged at 6-3-0 (hold-hike-cut, vs prev. 6-3-0). Czech CNB is also seen on hold at 3.75%. ECB’s Lane chairs a Jean Monnet lecture (no text); Norges Bank releases its Q3 regional network survey.
• SUPPLY: France auctions EUR 11-13bln of 2029, 2031, 2032 and 2032 debt, as well as EUR 2.0-2.5bln of 2037 OATeis. Spain sells EUR 5-6bln of 2032, 2034 and 2036). US will sell USD 19bln of 10yr TIPS; the Treasury will announce note sizes for next week’s issuance.
• ENERGY: WTI October 2026 options expire. EIA reports weekly natural gas stocks change (prev. +40bcf).
• **PREVIEW - BOE POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (12:00BST/07:00EDT): The MPC is expected to hold the Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, and slow annual QT to GBP 50bln (from GBP 70bln). Active gilt sales are expected around GBP 20bln, potentially excluding 20yr and 30yr bonds. Analysts say mixed inflation, growth and labour data support waiting until after the 28th October Budget. Click here for Newsquawk’s full BoE Preview.
• RECAP - FOMC POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT - The FOMC unanimously raised rates by 25bps to 3.75-4.00%. It said the move should help return inflation to target more quickly, while reiterating that inflation remains elevated. Economic activity was described as expanding at a solid pace, domestic spending as resilient and capital investment as robust. Labour-market language was broadly unchanged. The dot plot was hawkish, with the median showing another 25bps hike in 2026. Twelve of 18 participants saw one further hike, four saw two, and two saw none (NOTE: 18 of the 19 participants submitted forecasts; Chair Warsh again did not submit an individual forecast, consistent with his view that publishing projections can unduly constrain the Fed’s future policy decisions). The median rate forecast remained at 4.125% through the end-2027, before easing to 3.875% in 2028, and then to 3.625% in 2029, while its longer-run projection was nudged up to 3.2%. At his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Warsh emphasised price stability while describing the US economy and labour market as strong. As expected, he avoided any forward guidance, saying the Fed is “committed to a discipline, not a decision,” and framed the rate hike as evidence of determination to return inflation to target. Warsh also cited economic strength, capital demand and geopolitics behind higher bond yields. Writing after the announcements, analysts at Goldman Sachs said they now expect another 25bps Fed hike in October, citing a more hawkish-than-expected FOMC outcome; it highlighted the 16-2 projection for another 2026 hike, no dissent on the September move, a higher neutral-rate estimate, and Warsh’s emphasis on removing accommodation. Further hikes beyond October are possible, but are not Goldman’s base case.