[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD gives back some post-FOMC strength, whilst the GBP eyes BoE later today

Post-decision retracements of initial dollar strength are a well-worn pattern: the first move on a hawkish surprise tends to overshoot, and the subsequent sessions are shaped by whether follow-up Fed commentary confirms the dot plot's message or softens it, with the resumption of Fed speak after the blackout the usual catalyst either way. The distinction that matters here is unanimity plus the hawkish median versus a split vote: a united committee has historically given signals more durability than a narrow one, which is why the retracement is described as partial rather than a reversal. On rate differentials, the observation that front-end spreads no longer favour the dollar against most of G10 except the yen is a recurring late-cycle configuration, where further USD gains depend on other central banks staying dovish rather than on the Fed alone. For the yen, the pattern around anticipated BoJ tightening is familiar: a fully expected small hike rarely moves the currency by itself, and it is guidance on the pace of subsequent moves that has driven repricing. On sterling, a hold with a repeated vote split leaves the decision to the guidance, and central banks in this position have historically used the statement to lean against market pricing of near-term hikes when they judge it overdone, with the proximity of a fiscal event an established reason for keeping signalling minimal.