Fed Chair Warsh (Q&A): Can't effect any individual prices in regards to oil, but what we can do, and will do, is ensure that any change in relative prices don't broaden out, don't have second and third-order effects on the economy

Officials in this position have historically distinguished between the first-round level effect of an energy move, which monetary policy cannot and does not try to offset, and the second-round transmission through wages and expectations, which is the stated trigger for a response. The practical read is that the bar for reacting to the headline print is high, while the bar for reacting to core, wages, and inflation expectations is correspondingly lower, so the sensitivity of those releases rises relative to the top line. The distinction worth drawing is between a central bank looking through a shock it judges temporary and one signalling tolerance that later has to be walked back; in past episodes of this kind the follow-through has hinged on whether expectations measures stayed anchored. The tells are whether other officials repeat the same framing, how it sits against the prevailing stance on the policy rate, and any shift in language around expectations. As Q&A commentary rather than a decision, the signal is directional on the reaction function, not on timing.