Fed's Kashkari (2026 Voter) says the job market is clearly cooling and inflation is still too high, via CNBC TV

Neutral Rate

"My guess is that we are close to neutral at the moment".

Jobs

There is a risk that the unemployment rate can pop from here.
Wage growth is slowly trending down.
My expectation is low hiring and low firing.

Inflation

Has a lot of confidence that housing services inflation is coming down.
Lower-to-middle income anxiety is regarding inflation.

Economy

Expect the economy to remain resilient.
A K-shaped economy still seems to ring true in his district.
Thinks American households are in a better position vs 20 years ago.
Not seeing the effect of Venezuela, risk mostly through oil prices.

Trade

On the tariff front, are approaching a kind of equilibrium.
Notes of create new uncertainty, if the Supreme Court rules against the administration of tariffs.

Fed Independence

Not concerned about the risk of Fed Bank Presidents being fired.
Does not agree with US Treasury Secretary Besssent, that Bank Presidents do not represent their districts well.

AI

AI is a big company story, from what he hears, adding that it is not a big issues for smaller companies.

Headlines that moved markets

Headlines from our feed, and what the market did next.

Riksbank maintains its rate at 1.75% as expected; assesses that the probability of a rate increase later this year remains; there is considerable uncertainty and developments call for vigilance

EUR/SEK+0.3%

Norges Bank maintains its rate at 4.25% as expected; may still become necessary to raise the policy rate

EUR/NOK+0.6%

"We are interested in the diplomatic track, but without making concessions", Al Arabiya citing an Iranian diplomatic source.

WTI crude+0.8%

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