Five explosions were heard on Qeshm Island a few minutes ago, these explosions occurred continuously and one after the other, and given the intensity of the explosions, it seems that they were hit inside the island, reports IRNA

• Some Qeshm residents have also reported two planes flying in the sky over Qeshm.

Qeshm sits at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz and hosts significant Iranian naval and IRGC infrastructure, so kinetic activity on the island is categorically different from strikes deeper in the interior: it touches the chokepoint through which a large share of seaborne crude transits, and markets have historically treated Hormuz-adjacent escalation as a tail-risk event for supply rather than a headline risk. In comparable past episodes involving explosions at Iranian military or port facilities, the first question has been attribution, whether this is an external strike, an internal accident at a munitions or fuel site, or an exercise, and state media framing in the first hours has often been a guide to how Tehran intends to respond, with ambiguity typically preceding either denial or de-escalation. Reports of aircraft overhead lean the read toward a strike rather than an accident, which raises the retaliation question that has defined prior cycles: whether any response is symbolic and telegraphed, as has been the pattern in contained exchanges, or targets shipping and energy infrastructure directly. The transmission channels that matter are crude's geopolitical premium, war-risk insurance and freight rates in the Gulf, and safe-haven flows into gold and the front of the Treasury curve. Worth watching is confirmation from non-Iranian sources, any comment from Israel or the US, tanker traffic and insurance repricing in the strait, and whether Iranian officials characterise the event as an attack, since that word choice has historically signalled the escalation path.