US VP Vance says we have made some progress on Iran, will see if we can make some more; Have not set deadlines to resume strikes

• Had a number of good talks with Iranians.

Comments of this kind fit a well-worn pattern in US-Iran standoffs: public acknowledgement of progress paired with a refusal to set deadlines, which keeps both the diplomatic track and the strike option alive simultaneously. In comparable negotiation cycles the oil complex has traded the tone of these remarks as a proxy for tail risk, with the premium concentrating in front-month spreads, tanker freight and insurance costs on Gulf routes rather than in outright flat price conviction. The phrase about resumed strikes is the more market-relevant element, since framing strikes as paused rather than abandoned preserves escalation leverage and caps how far any risk premium unwind can run on a single headline. Statements from a vice president carry weight as signalling but are not commitments, and in past episodes the durable moves have followed tangible markers such as resumed or cancelled rounds of talks, sanctions actions, or shipping incidents, not interim verbal readouts. The tell worth noting is whether the Iranian side confirms the characterisation of good talks, since asymmetric messaging has historically preceded stalls in these cycles. Near term, the calendar items are any scheduled negotiating sessions and official readouts from intermediaries, against a baseline of headline-driven chop in crude and gold.