Goldman Sachs currently tracking Q1 2026 at 3.4%, though incorporates a 1.3pp contribution from the end of the government shutdown in Q4 '25; GS continue to forecast 2.5% GDP growth for 2026 Q4/Q4

Goldman Sachs currently tracking Q1 2026 at 3.4%, though incorporates a 1.3pp contribution from the end of the government shutdown in Q4 '25; GS continue to forecast 2.5% GDP growth for 2026 Q4/Q4.

Goldman Sachs' projection for Q1 2026 GDP growth at 3.4% incorporates a notable contribution from the conclusion of the government shutdown, indicating a potential boost to the economy in that period. Their continued forecast of 2.5% GDP growth for the full year suggests a more tempered outlook beyond the immediate impacts, highlighting possible headwinds that could affect growth trajectory. This data could influence market sentiment towards equities and fixed income, as investors reassess their expectations for economic resilience and policy responses.