Iran FM Araghchi says "We are more prepared than ever for a military response and the path of diplomacy", reports IRNA

• The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is conditional on Iran accepting its conditions

Statements pairing military readiness with openness to diplomacy are a standard Iranian posture in standoffs of this kind and have historically preceded negotiation rather than escalation, but the Hormuz conditionality is the operative element. The Strait carries a large share of seaborne crude and LNG, and past episodes in which its status became an explicit bargaining lever have tended to reprice freight rates, war-risk insurance premia and front-month crude before any physical disruption, with the back of the curve moving only when closure looked durable. The distinction that matters is between harassment or selective interference, which has typically produced a short-lived geopolitical premium that fades as flows prove uninterrupted, and a credible closure attempt, which historically draws naval escort arrangements and a more persistent term premium. Araghchi is a career diplomat rather than a security official, so the conditional framing reads as leverage-setting ahead of talks rather than an operational threat. The tells are tanker traffic and insurance quotes in the Gulf, any shift in naval deployments, and whether the stated conditions become public and negotiable.