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Japanese Election coverage: Exit polls expected at 20:00 JST / 11:00 GMT / 06:00 EST

The upcoming Japanese election exit polls are significant given their historical reliability, but early reports of reduced voter turnout and polling station closures due to weather could create uncertainty.

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at , 20 minutes before this page
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Japanese Election coverage: Exit polls across various outlets project a victory for PM Takaichi's ruling coalition LDP; generally see a single party majority, with the possibility of a two-thirds majority with its current partner JIP

NHK exit polls suggest that the ruling coalition are on course to win the election; exit polls show Takaichi extending her lead to 274-328 (majority needed 233)

Japanese Election coverage: Exit polls expected at 20:00 JST / 11:00 GMT / 06:00 EST

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  • Japanese exit polls have typically been seen to be reliable due to large in-person samples and high voter participation. Though, there may be some discrepancy if the election race is close.

Weather conditions:

  • Several outlets have reported that some polling stations will close early due to heavy snowfall. 
  • Local press have also reported that voter turn out has fallen from last year. Kyodo suggested that by 14:00 JST voter turnout reached 16.05% (prev. 19.12%) in 2024.
Context

Should the election result be close, discrepancies in these polls might impact market sentiment, particularly in equities and commodities such as gold. Traders should watch for potential volatility in the Nikkei 225 and related assets as results begin to emerge.

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