[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude extends gains on mounting US-Iran escalation risks; Brent tops USD 104/bbl as the US prepares potential strikes

Episodes of threatened US military action against Iran have historically traded as a risk premium story in crude first and a supply story only if physical disruption follows: the tell is whether tension stays rhetorical and preparatory or crosses into attacks on production, export infrastructure, or tanker traffic. The channel that separates the two cases is Hormuz and the Fujairah bunkering hub; reported strikes on tankers and assembly sites in that corridor are the mechanism by which headline risk becomes freight, insurance, and actual barrel loss, and past episodes show war-risk premia and tanker rates repricing before flat price fully does. The Brent-WTI spread is the other tell, since Gulf disruption bites seaborne waterborne crude harder than landlocked US barrels. Notable here is that gold's haven bid is being capped by hawkish Fed commentary and firm real yields, a pattern seen when geopolitical risk coincides with a tightening cycle and the dollar absorbs part of the safe-haven flow. Worth watching is whether the reported operational planning converts into action, whether the Hormuz transit understandings between Tehran and regional states hold, and whether TTF continues to price Gulf LNG exposure alongside crude. As with prior cycles of this kind, premia have tended to fade quickly when diplomacy reopens and to gap higher only on confirmed supply interruption.