[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude pulls back to the benefit of metals ahead of the FOMC

The distinction worth drawing is between disruptions to flows, which reprice promptly on resumption reports, and disruptions to infrastructure, where repair timelines set the floor under prices and official reassurances from consuming-country energy officials have historically been received sceptically. The crude-gold divergence here follows the established pattern into Fed decisions, with the metals bid resting on the rate and dollar channel rather than on any change in physical demand, so the reaction into the statement and projections is the established test of whether the bid survives contact with the guidance. Base metals, by contrast, are trading off the Chinese activity prints rather than the Fed, and soft domestic demand alongside stronger industrial output is a configuration that has in the past sustained stimulus expectations more durably than it has sustained copper. The follow-ons are the pipeline resumption timeline, whether loadings and cancelled cargoes are restored, and the tanker transit reports, all of which have historically determined whether a premium unwind sticks or reverses.